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Championship

Referee: Steve Martin

Southampton

S U S S T

3–1

Full-time

Stoke

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,32 xG 0,93

58% Possession 42%

18 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 21

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Southampton 19. · Stoke 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.5	6
2	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
3	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.1	3
4	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
5	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
6	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
7	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
8	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
9	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.0	3
10	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.0	2
11	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
12	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
13	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
14	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
15	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
16	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
17	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
18	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	-3.4	1
19	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
20	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
21	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
22	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
23	Lincoln	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
24	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
2	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
3	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
4	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
5	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
6	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
7	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
8	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
9	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
10	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
11	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.1	0
12	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
13	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
14	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.1	0
15	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
2	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.1	3
3	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.9	3
4	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.1	3
5	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
6	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
7	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
8	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
9	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
10	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
11	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
12	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
13	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
14	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
15	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.