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Championship

Referee: F Hallam

Stoke

S S U T U

0–2

Full-time

Southampton

U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,5

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 29/27 matches

Win Ø 37%

41%

33%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

41%

63%

Both score Ø 58%

38%

78%

Average goals

2,1

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,87 xG 1,90

52% Possession 48%

10 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 11. · Southampton 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	29	17	7	5	+29	+23.0	58
2	Ipswich	28	14	8	6	+21	+22.5	50
3	Millwall	28	14	7	7	+3	+5.2	49
4	Middlesbrough	26	14	6	6	+10	+9.4	48
5	Hull	26	14	5	7	+8	-13.7	47
6	Derby	30	12	9	9	+7	-3.5	45
7	Wrexham	29	11	11	7	+6	-4.8	44
8	Watford	28	11	10	7	+6	+7.0	43
9	Bristol City	30	12	7	11	+4	-0.5	43
10	Preston	29	11	10	8	+3	-7.3	43
11	Stoke	29	12	6	11	+8	-5.8	42
12	QPR	29	11	7	11	-2	+1.6	40
13	Birmingham	29	10	9	10	+1	+13.6	39
14	Leicester	29	10	8	11	-3	-11.5	38
15	Southampton	27	9	9	9	+4	+11.1	36
16	Swansea	29	10	6	13	-5	-7.6	36
17	Sheffield United	28	11	2	15	-2	+11.8	35
18	Norwich	29	9	6	14	-4	-10.3	33
19	Charlton	28	8	8	12	-11	-13.1	32
20	West Brom	29	9	5	15	-12	+6.3	32
21	Portsmouth	27	7	9	11	-13	-6.1	30
22	Blackburn	28	7	8	13	-11	+4.6	29
23	Oxford	28	6	9	13	-9	-5.0	27
24	Sheffield Weds	28	1	8	19	-38	-27.1	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	14	11	2	1	+20	+12.1	35
2	Ipswich	15	10	4	1	+18	+18.5	34
3	Watford	15	8	5	2	+9	+7.1	29
4	Millwall	14	9	2	3	+6	+8.1	29
5	Birmingham	14	7	6	1	+14	+16.2	27
6	Middlesbrough	13	8	3	2	+9	+4.0	27
7	Hull	13	8	2	3	+4	-3.4	26
8	Swansea	15	7	4	4	+2	-1.6	25
9	Bristol City	16	7	3	6	+5	+0.3	24
10	Wrexham	15	6	6	3	+4	+5.8	24
11	QPR	14	7	2	5	+6	+8.0	23
12	Preston	15	6	5	4	+3	-0.8	23
13	Southampton	13	6	4	3	+6	+9.1	22
14	Leicester	14	6	4	4	+3	+0.2	22
15	West Brom	14	6	4	4	-1	+8.4	22
16	Stoke	14	6	3	5	+7	+0.4	21
17	Charlton	13	6	3	4	+1	-2.7	21
18	Sheffield United	13	6	2	5	+7	+11.4	20
19	Portsmouth	14	5	4	5	+0	+2.0	19
20	Derby	15	4	6	5	-3	-0.6	18
21	Oxford	14	3	6	5	-4	+1.1	15
22	Norwich	14	4	1	9	-6	-1.7	13
23	Blackburn	14	2	5	7	-7	+4.2	11
24	Sheffield Weds	15	0	4	11	-25	-12.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Derby	15	8	3	4	+10	-2.8	27
2	Coventry	15	6	5	4	+9	+10.9	23
3	Hull	13	6	3	4	+4	-10.3	21
4	Middlesbrough	13	6	3	4	+1	+5.3	21
5	Stoke	15	6	3	6	+1	-6.2	21
6	Norwich	15	5	5	5	+2	-8.6	20
7	Wrexham	14	5	5	4	+2	-10.6	20
8	Preston	14	5	5	4	+0	-6.5	20
9	Millwall	14	5	5	4	-3	-2.9	20
10	Bristol City	14	5	4	5	-1	-0.8	19
11	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-4	+0.4	18
12	QPR	15	4	5	6	-8	-6.3	17
13	Ipswich	13	4	4	5	+3	+4.1	16
14	Leicester	15	4	4	7	-6	-11.7	16
15	Sheffield United	15	5	0	10	-9	+0.4	15
16	Southampton	14	3	5	6	-2	+2.0	14
17	Watford	13	3	5	5	-3	-0.0	14
18	Oxford	14	3	3	8	-5	-6.1	12
19	Birmingham	15	3	3	9	-13	-2.6	12
20	Swansea	14	3	2	9	-7	-5.9	11
21	Charlton	15	2	5	8	-12	-10.5	11
22	Portsmouth	13	2	5	6	-13	-8.1	11
23	West Brom	15	3	1	11	-11	-2.1	10
24	Sheffield Weds	13	1	4	8	-13	-14.2	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.