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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Stoke

T S T U T

1–3

Full-time

Millwall

U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 43/41 matches

Win Ø 43%

35%

51%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

42%

46%

Both score Ø 44%

42%

46%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,98 xG 1,48

47% Possession 53%

12 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 1

3 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 17. · Millwall 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	43	25	11	7	+42	+32.3	86
2	Ipswich	42	21	13	8	+29	+28.1	76
3	Southampton	41	21	11	9	+28	+19.8	74
4	Millwall	41	21	10	10	+11	+6.2	73
5	Wrexham	43	18	13	12	+5	-6.3	67
6	Middlesbrough	40	18	12	10	+13	+23.9	66
7	Derby	43	19	9	15	+9	+2.3	66
8	Hull	40	19	9	12	+7	-21.0	66
9	Norwich	43	18	7	18	+7	-3.3	61
10	Bristol City	43	16	10	17	-1	-6.8	58
11	QPR	43	16	10	17	-7	-1.4	58
12	Sheffield United	43	17	6	20	+2	+14.1	57
13	Watford	43	14	15	14	-1	+4.0	57
14	Birmingham	43	15	12	16	-1	+13.2	57
15	Swansea	43	16	9	18	-5	-6.4	57
16	Preston	43	14	15	14	-5	-16.1	57
17	Stoke	43	15	10	18	+1	-11.1	55
18	Portsmouth	43	13	12	18	-13	-0.1	51
19	Charlton	43	12	14	17	-12	-14.6	50
20	West Brom	43	12	13	18	-12	+9.5	49
21	Blackburn	44	12	13	19	-15	+1.2	49
22	Leicester	43	11	14	18	-11	-12.3	47
23	Oxford	43	10	14	19	-14	-6.9	44
24	Sheffield Weds	43	1	12	30	-57	-48.2	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	21	15	4	2	+26	+22.1	49
2	Ipswich	22	13	8	1	+23	+24.8	47
3	Southampton	20	12	5	3	+19	+14.0	41
4	Millwall	21	12	3	6	+8	+8.0	39
5	Birmingham	21	10	8	3	+15	+19.9	38
6	Watford	22	10	7	5	+7	+6.0	37
7	Swansea	22	10	6	6	+5	-1.5	36
8	Derby	22	10	6	6	+5	+4.5	36
9	Wrexham	22	10	6	6	+4	+7.3	36
10	Hull	20	10	5	5	+5	-4.5	35
11	Stoke	21	9	6	6	+10	+3.5	33
12	Middlesbrough	20	9	6	5	+7	+12.7	33
13	QPR	21	10	3	8	+5	+7.9	33
14	Sheffield United	21	9	4	8	+8	+15.0	31
15	Preston	22	8	7	7	+0	-3.4	31
16	West Brom	21	7	9	5	+0	+12.2	30
17	Portsmouth	22	8	5	9	+2	+7.4	29
18	Bristol City	22	8	4	10	+0	-4.4	28
19	Charlton	21	8	4	9	-3	-0.8	28
20	Norwich	21	8	2	11	-2	-0.2	26
21	Leicester	21	7	5	9	-3	-0.7	26
22	Oxford	21	6	8	7	-5	+2.8	26
23	Blackburn	22	4	9	9	-7	+5.2	21
24	Sheffield Weds	22	0	7	15	-31	-21.9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	22	10	7	5	+16	+10.3	37
2	Norwich	22	10	5	7	+9	-3.1	35
3	Millwall	20	9	7	4	+3	-1.8	34
4	Southampton	21	9	6	6	+9	+5.8	33
5	Middlesbrough	20	9	6	5	+6	+11.2	33
6	Hull	20	9	4	7	+2	-16.4	31
7	Wrexham	21	8	7	6	+1	-13.5	31
8	Derby	21	9	3	9	+4	-2.1	30
9	Bristol City	21	8	6	7	-1	-2.4	30
10	Ipswich	20	8	5	7	+6	+3.3	29
11	Blackburn	22	8	4	10	-8	-4.0	28
12	Preston	21	6	8	7	-5	-12.7	26
13	Sheffield United	22	8	2	12	-6	-0.9	26
14	QPR	22	6	7	9	-12	-9.4	25
15	Charlton	22	4	10	8	-9	-13.9	22
16	Stoke	22	6	4	12	-9	-14.7	22
17	Portsmouth	21	5	7	9	-15	-7.5	22
18	Leicester	22	4	9	9	-8	-11.7	21
19	Swansea	21	6	3	12	-10	-4.9	21
20	Watford	21	4	8	9	-8	-2.0	20
21	West Brom	22	5	4	13	-12	-2.7	19
22	Birmingham	22	5	4	13	-16	-6.7	19
23	Oxford	22	4	6	12	-9	-9.7	18
24	Sheffield Weds	21	1	5	15	-26	-26.3	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.