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Championship

Referee: Tony Harrington

Lincoln

S T U S T

1–3

Full-time

Portsmouth

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lincoln Portsmouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,0

3,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,32 xG 1,21

39% Possession 61%

15 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 3

9 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lincoln 19. · Portsmouth 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
2	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.9	3
3	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.1	3
4	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
5	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
6	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
7	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
8	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
9	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
10	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
11	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
12	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
13	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
14	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
15	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
16	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
17	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.1	0
18	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
19	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
20	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
21	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
22	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
23	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
24	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
2	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
3	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
4	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
5	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
6	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
7	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
8	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
9	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.1	0
10	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
11	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
12	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
2	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.9	3
3	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.1	3
4	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
5	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
6	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
7	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
8	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
9	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
10	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
11	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
12	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.