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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Southampton

T T S S U

1–2

Full-time

Stoke

T U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,5

3,0

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+2,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,59 xG 1,50

65% Possession 35%

18 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Southampton 7. · Stoke 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.3	6
2	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.6	6
3	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.8	6
4	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.8	6
5	Bristol City	3	1	2	0	+3	-0.9	5
6	Coventry	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.8	4
7	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
8	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
9	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
10	Watford	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.9	4
11	Swansea	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.8	4
12	Charlton	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.8	4
13	Hull	3	1	1	1	-2	-2.6	4
14	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	+1	+0.5	3
15	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.8	3
16	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.4	3
17	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.7	3
18	Ipswich	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.0	2
19	QPR	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.5	1
20	Derby	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.8	1
21	Wrexham	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.6	0
22	Oxford	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
23	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.2	0
24	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
2	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
3	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
4	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
5	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
6	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
7	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
8	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
9	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.6	3
10	Hull	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.6	3
11	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
12	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
13	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Coventry	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
15	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
16	Derby	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.1	1
17	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
18	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
19	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
20	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
21	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
22	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-3	+1.0	0
23	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.4	0
24	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.7	4
2	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.4	3
3	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.6	3
4	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
5	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
6	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
7	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
8	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
9	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
10	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
11	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.7	3
12	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
13	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
15	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
16	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
17	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
18	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
19	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
20	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
21	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
22	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
23	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
24	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.