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Championship

Referee: F Hallam

Middlesbrough

T U S S U

0–0

Full-time

Southampton

S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

2,0

2,2

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 43/44 matches

Win Ø 49%

47%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

53%

64%

Both score Ø 65%

56%

73%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,81 xG 0,58

64% Possession 36%

22 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 5

2 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 5. · Southampton 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	46	28	11	7	+52	+35.5	95
2	Ipswich	46	23	15	8	+33	+32.0	84
3	Millwall	45	23	12	10	+15	+8.9	81
4	Southampton	44	22	13	9	+30	+20.6	79
5	Middlesbrough	43	20	13	10	+18	+27.0	73
6	Hull	44	20	11	13	+7	-22.1	71
7	Wrexham	46	19	14	13	+4	-6.5	71
8	Derby	46	20	9	17	+8	+0.9	69
9	Norwich	46	19	8	19	+7	-3.3	65
10	Birmingham	46	17	13	16	+1	+14.3	64
11	Swansea	46	18	10	18	-2	-5.6	64
12	Bristol City	46	17	11	18	+0	-7.7	62
13	Sheffield United	46	18	6	22	+0	+13.8	60
14	Preston	46	15	15	16	-7	-16.3	60
15	QPR	46	16	10	20	-12	-2.8	58
16	Watford	46	14	15	17	-12	+2.0	57
17	Stoke	46	15	10	21	-5	-12.7	55
18	Portsmouth	46	14	13	19	-15	-4.1	55
19	West Brom	46	13	14	19	-10	+11.2	53
20	Charlton	46	13	14	19	-14	-16.2	53
21	Leicester	46	12	16	18	-10	-10.6	52
22	Blackburn	46	13	13	20	-14	+0.1	52
23	Oxford	46	11	14	21	-14	-7.1	47
24	Sheffield Weds	46	2	12	32	-60	-51.4	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	23	17	4	2	+32	+25.6	55
2	Ipswich	23	14	8	1	+26	+26.5	50
3	Birmingham	23	12	8	3	+17	+20.1	44
4	Southampton	22	12	7	3	+19	+14.3	43
5	Millwall	22	13	3	6	+10	+9.0	42
6	Middlesbrough	22	11	6	5	+12	+15.4	39
7	Swansea	23	11	6	6	+7	-1.3	39
8	Hull	22	11	6	5	+6	-3.9	39
9	Wrexham	23	10	7	6	+4	+6.9	37
10	Watford	23	10	7	6	+3	+6.3	37
11	Derby	23	10	6	7	+4	+4.7	36
12	West Brom	23	8	10	5	+3	+13.3	34
13	Stoke	23	9	6	8	+6	+2.9	33
14	QPR	23	10	3	10	+3	+8.2	33
15	Sheffield United	23	9	4	10	+5	+15.0	31
16	Bristol City	23	9	4	10	+2	-3.4	31
17	Preston	23	8	7	8	-2	-3.9	31
18	Charlton	23	9	4	10	-3	-2.1	31
19	Portsmouth	23	8	6	9	+2	+6.5	30
20	Norwich	23	9	3	11	-1	+0.7	30
21	Oxford	23	7	8	8	-3	+3.6	29
22	Leicester	23	7	7	9	-3	-0.1	28
23	Blackburn	23	4	9	10	-8	+4.1	21
24	Sheffield Weds	23	1	7	15	-30	-22.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	23	11	7	5	+20	+10.0	40
2	Millwall	23	10	9	4	+5	-0.1	39
3	Southampton	22	10	6	6	+11	+6.3	36
4	Norwich	23	10	5	8	+8	-4.0	35
5	Ipswich	23	9	7	7	+7	+5.5	34
6	Middlesbrough	21	9	7	5	+6	+11.6	34
7	Wrexham	23	9	7	7	+0	-13.4	34
8	Derby	23	10	3	10	+4	-3.8	33
9	Hull	22	9	5	8	+1	-18.2	32
10	Bristol City	23	8	7	8	-2	-4.3	31
11	Blackburn	23	9	4	10	-6	-4.0	31
12	Sheffield United	23	9	2	12	-5	-1.1	29
13	Preston	23	7	8	8	-5	-12.4	29
14	Swansea	23	7	4	12	-9	-4.3	25
15	QPR	23	6	7	10	-15	-11.0	25
16	Portsmouth	23	6	7	10	-17	-10.6	25
17	Leicester	23	5	9	9	-7	-10.6	24
18	Charlton	23	4	10	9	-11	-14.1	22
19	Stoke	23	6	4	13	-11	-15.6	22
20	Watford	23	4	8	11	-15	-4.3	20
21	Birmingham	23	5	5	13	-16	-5.7	20
22	West Brom	23	5	4	14	-13	-2.1	19
23	Oxford	23	4	6	13	-11	-10.7	18
24	Sheffield Weds	23	1	5	17	-30	-28.9	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.