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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Southampton

S S S T T

0–1

Full-time

Stoke

U U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 42/44 matches

Win Ø 43%

55%

30%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

67%

43%

Both score Ø 55%

67%

43%

Average goals

3,4

2,4

Scored

1,9

1,0

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,69 xG 1,99

65% Possession 35%

14 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 4

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 4. · Stoke 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	44	30	4	10	+47	+36.4	94
2	Ipswich	43	26	11	6	+32	+24.7	89
3	Leeds	43	25	9	9	+37	+37.5	84
4	Southampton	42	23	9	10	+21	+30.5	78
5	West Brom	42	20	12	10	+26	+7.2	72
6	Norwich	42	21	9	12	+18	-0.4	72
7	Hull	44	19	12	13	+9	+7.5	69
8	Coventry	43	17	12	14	+13	+9.8	63
9	Middlesbrough	44	18	9	17	+4	+11.1	63
10	Preston	44	18	9	17	-5	-13.6	63
11	Cardiff	44	19	5	20	-11	-24.8	62
12	Bristol City	44	16	11	17	+4	-1.4	59
13	Sunderland	44	16	8	20	+1	+7.6	56
14	Swansea	44	15	11	18	-5	-5.6	56
15	Watford	44	12	17	15	+1	-1.7	53
16	QPR	45	14	11	20	-12	-4.5	53
17	Millwall	44	14	11	19	-12	-11.2	53
18	Stoke	44	13	11	20	-16	-3.3	50
19	Blackburn	44	13	10	21	-16	-9.4	49
20	Plymouth	44	12	12	20	-11	-21.0	48
21	Sheffield Weds	44	13	8	23	-29	-8.4	47
22	Birmingham	44	12	10	22	-16	-8.6	46
23	Huddersfield	44	9	17	18	-27	-13.0	44
24	Rotherham	44	4	12	28	-53	-45.4	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	22	17	1	4	+31	+19.7	52
2	Ipswich	22	15	6	1	+25	+23.3	51
3	Leeds	21	15	5	1	+29	+25.4	50
4	Norwich	21	15	3	3	+22	+9.4	48
5	West Brom	21	14	4	3	+20	+11.9	46
6	Southampton	21	14	3	4	+25	+23.5	45
7	Preston	22	11	4	7	+2	-2.5	37
8	Coventry	21	9	8	4	+11	+6.6	35
9	Bristol City	22	10	4	8	+8	+2.0	34
10	Birmingham	22	9	6	7	+5	+1.2	33
11	Cardiff	22	10	3	9	-2	-11.4	33
12	Hull	22	8	8	6	+8	+7.1	32
13	Plymouth	22	9	5	8	+5	-10.1	32
14	Sunderland	22	10	2	10	+2	+6.6	32
15	Middlesbrough	22	9	4	9	+2	+10.3	31
16	Swansea	22	8	5	9	-1	+2.7	29
17	Millwall	22	8	5	9	-8	-3.0	29
18	Sheffield Weds	22	7	7	8	-3	+2.7	28
19	QPR	23	7	6	10	-4	+1.0	27
20	Stoke	22	7	6	9	-7	+2.0	27
21	Huddersfield	22	6	7	9	-10	-4.2	25
22	Watford	22	5	9	8	+3	+7.1	24
23	Blackburn	22	6	6	10	-7	+0.8	24
24	Rotherham	22	4	8	10	-7	-13.1	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	22	13	3	6	+16	+16.7	42
2	Ipswich	21	11	5	5	+7	+1.4	38
3	Hull	22	11	4	7	+1	+0.3	37
4	Leeds	22	10	4	8	+8	+12.1	34
5	Southampton	21	9	6	6	-4	+7.0	33
6	Middlesbrough	22	9	5	8	+2	+0.8	32
7	Watford	22	7	8	7	-2	-8.8	29
8	Cardiff	22	9	2	11	-9	-13.4	29
9	Coventry	22	8	4	10	+2	+3.2	28
10	Swansea	22	7	6	9	-4	-8.3	27
11	West Brom	21	6	8	7	+6	-4.7	26
12	Preston	22	7	5	10	-7	-11.0	26
13	QPR	22	7	5	10	-8	-5.5	26
14	Bristol City	22	6	7	9	-4	-3.4	25
15	Blackburn	22	7	4	11	-9	-10.2	25
16	Sunderland	22	6	6	10	-1	+1.0	24
17	Norwich	21	6	6	9	-4	-9.8	24
18	Millwall	22	6	6	10	-4	-8.2	24
19	Stoke	22	6	5	11	-9	-5.3	23
20	Huddersfield	22	3	10	9	-17	-8.8	19
21	Sheffield Weds	22	6	1	15	-26	-11.1	19
22	Plymouth	22	3	7	12	-16	-10.9	16
23	Birmingham	22	3	4	15	-21	-9.7	13
24	Rotherham	22	0	4	18	-46	-32.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.