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Championship

Referee: Matt Donohue

Watford

T T T T S

2–1

Full-time

Southampton

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

0,3

1,7

Conceded

2,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-2,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,81 xG 1,71

34% Possession 66%

16 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 8

0 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 9

6 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
2	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.9	3
3	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.1	3
4	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
5	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
6	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
7	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
8	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
9	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
10	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
11	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
12	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.1	0
13	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
14	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
15	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
16	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
17	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
18	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
2	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
3	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
4	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
5	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
6	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.1	0
7	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
8	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
9	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
2	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.9	3
3	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.1	3
4	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
5	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
6	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
7	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
8	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
9	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.