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Ligue 2
Referee: R Landry
Caen
S S U S U
1–1
Full-time
Pau FC
T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Pau FC
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,8
Scored
1,5
0,8
Conceded
1,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-1,2
This season — Ligue 2 · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
60%
0%
Points per game
2,2
0,4
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
40%
60%
Both score Ø 50%
60%
40%
Average goals
2,6
2,4
Scored
1,8
0,4
Conceded
0,8
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-1,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

66% Possession 34%
18 Shots 6
3 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 6
2 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 3
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Caen 1. · Pau FC 20.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Caen 5 3 2 0 +5 11
2 Dijon 5 3 2 0 +3 11
3 Guingamp 5 3 1 1 +3 10
4 Amiens 5 3 1 1 +1 10
5 Bordeaux 5 2 2 1 +3 8
6 Sochaux 5 2 1 2 +4 7
7 Metz 5 2 1 2 +3 7
8 Laval 5 2 1 2 +1 7
9 Nimes 5 2 1 2 +0 7
10 Le Havre 5 1 3 1 +5 6
11 Bastia 5 2 0 3 +0 6
12 Quevilly Rouen 5 1 3 1 +0 6
13 Paris FC 5 1 3 1 +0 6
14 Valenciennes 5 1 3 1 -1 6
15 Grenoble 5 1 3 1 -2 6
16 Niort 5 2 0 3 -5 6
17 Rodez 5 1 2 2 -2 5
18 St Etienne 5 0 3 2 -7 3
19 Annecy 5 0 2 3 -3 2
20 Pau FC 5 0 2 3 -8 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Caen Pau FC
7′
H. Saivet 0–1
1–1 A. Abdi
Alexandre Mendy
23′
38′
🟨 David Gomis
43′
🟨 Jean Ruiz
Half-time 1–1
B. Brahimi 🔁
↦ C. Zady Sery
62′
S. Essende 🔁
↦ Alexandre Mendy
62′
Samuel Essende 🟨
63′
66′
🔁 C. Boli
↦ W. Jarmouni
Hugo Vandermersch 🟨
72′
J. Obiang 🔁
↦ H. Vandermersch
73′
B. Jeannot 🔁
↦ G. Kyeremeh
73′
74′
🔁 D. Abzi
↦ J. Evans
74′
🔁 E. Sylvestre
↦ S. Beusnard
77′
🟨 Alexandre Olliero
85′
🔁 Nguyễn Quang Hải
↦ David Gomis
Samuel Essende 🟨
91′
Samuel Essende 🟥
91′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Caen

3-5-2
1 A. Mandréa G
22 B. Traoré D
27 I. Cissé D
29 R. Thomas D
24 H. Vandermersch M
6 Q. Daubin M
28 D. Diani M
10 C. Zady Sery M
2 A. Abdi M
19 Alexandre Mendy F
17 G. Kyeremeh F
Bench (7)
21 B. Brahimi
99 S. Essende
23 J. Obiang
9 B. Jeannot
26 I. Mohamed
16 Y. Clementia
4 A. Teikeu

Coach: S. Moulin

Pau FC

5-3-2
1 A. Olliero G
7 E. Koffi D
5 N. Sow D
4 X. Kouassi D
25 J. Ruiz D
26 J. Evans D
21 S. Beusnard M
20 H. Saivet M
6 S. D'Almeida M
22 W. Jarmouni F
8 David Gomis F
Bench (7)
23 C. Boli
2 D. Abzi
12 E. Sylvestre
19 Nguyễn Quang Hải
15 M. Ros
16 M. Ndiaye
18 M. Yattara

Coach: D. Tholot

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,60
U ✓
3,69
B
5,92
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,15
U2,5 ✓
1,68
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

R Landry · 77 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.