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Primeira Liga

Referee: H Malheiro

Moreirense

T T U S T

3–2

Full-time

Estrela

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 27%

35%

19%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

52%

Both score Ø 47%

48%

45%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,68 xG 2,75

66% Possession 34%

14 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 8. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	31	26	4	1	+48	+37.6	82
2	Benfica	31	22	9	0	+47	+36.3	75
3	Sp Lisbon	31	22	7	2	+55	+40.2	73
4	Sp Braga	31	16	8	7	+28	+21.6	56
5	Famalicao	31	14	9	8	+12	+10.2	51
6	Gil Vicente	31	13	10	8	+14	+10.6	49
7	Guimaraes	31	12	6	13	-5	-3.0	42
8	Moreirense	31	11	6	14	-11	-17.1	39
9	Alverca	31	10	8	13	-15	-1.5	38
10	Estoril	31	10	7	14	-1	-10.0	37
11	Arouca	31	10	5	16	-21	-18.4	35
12	Rio Ave	31	8	10	13	-19	-16.7	34
13	Santa Clara	31	8	8	15	-10	-0.2	32
14	Nacional	31	8	7	16	-7	-12.2	31
15	Estrela	31	6	10	15	-17	-10.3	28
16	Casa Pia	31	5	11	15	-26	-24.6	26
17	Tondela	31	4	10	17	-29	-13.2	22
18	AVS	31	1	11	19	-43	-29.2	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	15	12	3	0	+25	+21.5	39
2	Benfica	16	11	5	0	+28	+23.7	38
3	Sp Lisbon	15	11	2	2	+33	+24.2	35
4	Gil Vicente	16	9	3	4	+13	+7.0	30
5	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+16	+14.0	28
6	Guimaraes	16	8	4	4	+8	-0.5	28
7	Famalicao	15	8	3	4	+14	+9.7	27
8	Alverca	16	7	4	5	-5	+6.1	25
9	Estoril	16	6	5	5	+5	-5.2	23
10	Moreirense	15	7	2	6	-2	-7.1	23
11	Arouca	15	6	3	6	-5	-5.9	21
12	Santa Clara	16	6	2	8	-2	+4.0	20
13	Nacional	15	5	2	8	-1	-3.8	17
14	Estrela	16	4	5	7	-3	+1.8	17
15	Casa Pia	15	2	8	5	-7	-10.5	14
16	Rio Ave	15	3	5	7	-9	-3.1	14
17	Tondela	16	1	7	8	-10	-4.7	10
18	AVS	16	1	6	9	-14	-12.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	16	14	1	1	+23	+16.1	43
2	Sp Lisbon	16	11	5	0	+22	+16.1	38
3	Benfica	15	11	4	0	+19	+12.7	37
4	Sp Braga	16	8	4	4	+12	+7.5	28
5	Famalicao	16	6	6	4	-2	+0.5	24
6	Rio Ave	16	5	5	6	-10	-13.6	20
7	Gil Vicente	15	4	7	4	+1	+3.6	19
8	Moreirense	16	4	4	8	-9	-10.0	16
9	Estoril	15	4	2	9	-6	-4.8	14
10	Nacional	16	3	5	8	-6	-8.4	14
11	Guimaraes	15	4	2	9	-13	-2.6	14
12	Arouca	16	4	2	10	-16	-12.4	14
13	Alverca	15	3	4	8	-10	-7.6	13
14	Santa Clara	15	2	6	7	-8	-4.2	12
15	Tondela	15	3	3	9	-19	-8.5	12
16	Casa Pia	16	3	3	10	-19	-14.2	12
17	Estrela	15	2	5	8	-14	-12.1	11
18	AVS	15	0	5	10	-29	-16.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.