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Champions League
Referee: S Vinčić
Paris SG
S U T S S
3–0
Full-time
Milan
S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Milan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
3,0
1,5
Scored
2,2
1,2
Conceded
0,8
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,5
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 25%
50%
0%
Average goals
3,5
0,0
Scored
1,5
0,0
Conceded
2,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,33 xG 0,58
62% Possession 38%
13 Shots 11
7 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 7
3 Offside 0
17 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Paris SG Milan
4′
🟨 Malick Thiaw
7′
🟨 Rade Krunić
Achraf Hakimi 🟨
16′
1–0 K. Mbappé ⚽
W. Zaïre-Emery
32′
Ousmane Dembélé 🟨
44′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 D. Calabria
↦ M. Thiaw
Ousmane Dembélé ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
49′
2–0 R. Kolo Muani ⚽
53′
61′
🟨 Fikayo Tomori
62′
🟨 Pierre Kalulu
Lee Kang-In 🔁
↦ O. Dembélé
71′
Fabián Ruiz 🔁
↦ M. Ugarte
71′
77′
🔁 Y. Adli
↦ R. Krunić
77′
🔁 T. Pobega
↦ Y. Musah
Gonçalo Ramos 🔁
↦ R. Kolo Muani
82′
3–0 Lee Kang-In ⚽
W. Zaïre-Emery
89′
90′
🔁 S. Kjær
↦ F. Tomori
N. Mukiele 🔁
↦ A. Hakimi
93′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Paris SG

4-3-3
99 G. Donnarumma G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
37 M. Škriniar D
21 L. Hernández D
4 M. Ugarte M
33 W. Zaïre-Emery M
17 Vitinha M
10 O. Dembélé F
23 R. Kolo Muani F
7 K. Mbappé F
Bench (9)
19 Lee Kang-In
8 Fabián Ruiz
9 Gonçalo Ramos
26 N. Mukiele
80 Arnau Tenas
29 B. Barcola
15 Danilo Pereira
30 A. Letellier
28 Carlos Soler

Coach: Luis Enrique

Milan

4-3-3
16 M. Maignan G
20 P. Kalulu D
23 F. Tomori D
28 M. Thiaw D
19 T. Hernández D
14 T. Reijnders M
33 R. Krunić M
80 Y. Musah M
11 C. Pulišić F
9 O. Giroud F
10 Rafael Leão F
Bench (10)
2 D. Calabria
7 Y. Adli
32 T. Pobega
24 S. Kjær
83 A. Mirante
42 A. Florenzi
70 C. Traorè
15 L. Jović
69 L. Nava
95 D. Bartesaghi

Coach: S. Pioli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Vinčić · 42 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.