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Serie A

Referee: M Marcenaro

Lazio

T S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

1,7

2,5

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 50%

44%

56%

Points per game

1,4

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

44%

67%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,7

3,4

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,00 xG 0,41

47% Possession 53%

11 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

0 Corners 4

5 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 9. · Fiorentina 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	1	1	+20	+13.8	25
2	Juventus	10	7	2	1	+10	+10.7	23
3	Milan	10	7	1	2	+7	+4.2	22
4	Atalanta	10	6	1	3	+10	+6.2	19
5	Napoli	10	5	3	2	+10	+11.4	18
6	Fiorentina	9	5	2	2	+5	-1.7	17
7	Bologna	10	3	6	1	+3	+2.2	15
8	Roma	10	4	2	4	+7	+4.2	14
9	Lazio	9	4	1	4	+0	-0.4	13
10	Monza	10	3	4	3	+0	+0.5	13
11	Lecce	10	3	4	3	-2	-6.6	13
12	Frosinone	10	3	3	4	-2	-1.9	12
13	Torino	10	3	3	4	-5	-4.4	12
14	Genoa	10	3	2	5	-3	-3.8	11
15	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-4	-6.2	11
16	Verona	10	2	2	6	-6	-8.7	8
17	Udinese	10	0	7	3	-8	-0.1	7
18	Empoli	10	2	1	7	-16	-6.0	7
19	Cagliari	10	1	3	6	-12	-3.0	6
20	Salernitana	10	0	4	6	-14	-10.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	6	4	1	1	+10	+8.3	13
2	Juventus	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.9	13
3	Roma	5	3	1	1	+9	+3.9	10
4	Atalanta	4	3	1	0	+7	+3.3	10
5	Bologna	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.8	10
6	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.2	10
7	Lecce	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.1	10
8	Milan	4	3	0	1	+5	+3.5	9
9	Monza	5	2	3	0	+5	+4.3	9
10	Napoli	5	2	1	2	+2	+6.1	7
11	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.5	7
12	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.9	7
13	Genoa	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.1	7
14	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	-1	-1.4	7
15	Torino	5	1	3	1	-2	-1.4	6
16	Verona	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.8	4
17	Cagliari	5	1	1	3	-6	+0.6	4
18	Empoli	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.7	4
19	Udinese	5	0	3	2	-5	+3.0	3
20	Salernitana	5	0	3	2	-7	-2.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	6	4	1	1	+2	+0.8	13
2	Inter	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.5	12
3	Napoli	5	3	2	0	+8	+5.3	11
4	Juventus	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.8	10
5	Fiorentina	5	3	1	1	+3	-3.2	10
6	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	+3	+2.9	9
7	Lazio	5	2	0	3	-2	-2.3	6
8	Torino	5	2	0	3	-3	-3.0	6
9	Bologna	5	0	5	0	+0	+0.4	5
10	Roma	5	1	1	3	-2	+0.3	4
11	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-3	-4.9	4
12	Udinese	5	0	4	1	-3	-3.1	4
13	Genoa	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.7	4
14	Verona	6	1	1	4	-4	-5.9	4
15	Monza	5	1	1	3	-5	-3.8	4
16	Lecce	4	0	3	1	-1	-5.5	3
17	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-10	-4.3	3
18	Frosinone	5	0	2	3	-4	-2.1	2
19	Cagliari	5	0	2	3	-6	-3.6	2
20	Salernitana	5	0	1	4	-7	-7.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.