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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Fiorentina

T S T T S

2–1

Full-time

Bologna

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 41%

45%

36%

Points per game

1,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

55%

36%

Both score Ø 45%

45%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

1,4

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,45 xG 1,82

39% Possession 61%

12 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

0 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Bologna 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	12	9	2	1	+12	+12.5	29
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+21	+14.1	28
3	Milan	12	7	2	3	+6	+3.3	23
4	Napoli	12	6	3	3	+11	+12.9	21
5	Atalanta	11	6	1	4	+9	+5.8	19
6	Bologna	11	4	6	1	+4	+2.3	18
7	Roma	11	5	2	4	+8	+5.5	17
8	Fiorentina	11	5	2	4	+3	-3.3	17
9	Monza	12	4	5	3	+2	+0.3	17
10	Lazio	11	5	1	5	+0	+1.1	16
11	Torino	12	4	4	4	-4	-1.4	16
12	Frosinone	11	4	3	4	-1	-2.6	15
13	Lecce	12	3	5	4	-3	-7.5	14
14	Genoa	12	4	2	6	-3	-2.1	14
15	Sassuolo	12	3	3	6	-5	-7.1	12
16	Udinese	11	1	7	3	-7	+0.5	10
17	Empoli	12	3	1	8	-16	-5.7	10
18	Cagliari	12	2	3	7	-12	-5.0	9
19	Verona	12	2	2	8	-9	-10.0	8
20	Salernitana	12	0	5	7	-16	-13.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	6	5	1	0	+7	+9.7	16
2	Roma	6	4	1	1	+10	+5.2	13
3	Inter	6	4	1	1	+10	+8.3	13
4	Bologna	6	4	1	1	+4	+1.8	13
5	Frosinone	6	4	1	1	+3	-0.5	13
6	Lecce	7	3	2	2	-1	-0.8	11
7	Atalanta	5	3	1	1	+6	+3.0	10
8	Monza	6	2	4	0	+5	+4.3	10
9	Lazio	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.5	10
10	Genoa	6	3	1	2	+1	+0.3	10
11	Milan	5	3	0	2	+4	+2.9	9
12	Torino	6	2	3	1	-1	+1.6	9
13	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	-1	+0.8	8
14	Napoli	6	2	1	3	+1	+6.5	7
15	Fiorentina	5	2	1	2	+1	+1.5	7
16	Cagliari	6	2	1	3	-5	+0.4	7
17	Verona	5	1	1	3	-4	-2.7	4
18	Empoli	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.7	4
19	Udinese	5	0	3	2	-5	+3.0	3
20	Salernitana	6	0	3	3	-9	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	5	5	0	0	+11	+5.8	15
2	Napoli	6	4	2	0	+10	+6.4	14
3	Milan	7	4	2	1	+2	+0.4	14
4	Juventus	6	4	1	1	+5	+2.7	13
5	Fiorentina	6	3	1	2	+2	-4.8	10
6	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	+3	+2.9	9
7	Udinese	6	1	4	1	-2	-2.5	7
8	Torino	6	2	1	3	-3	-3.0	7
9	Monza	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.0	7
10	Lazio	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.4	6
11	Empoli	6	2	0	4	-10	-4.0	6
12	Bologna	5	0	5	0	+0	+0.4	5
13	Roma	5	1	1	3	-2	+0.3	4
14	Sassuolo	5	1	1	3	-4	-7.9	4
15	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-4	-2.5	4
16	Verona	7	1	1	5	-5	-7.3	4
17	Lecce	5	0	3	2	-2	-6.8	3
18	Frosinone	5	0	2	3	-4	-2.1	2
19	Cagliari	6	0	2	4	-7	-5.4	2
20	Salernitana	6	0	2	4	-7	-9.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.