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La Liga
Referee: Guillermo Cuadra
Villarreal
T S S U U
2–2
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,8
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
4,0
2,7
Scored
2,3
1,8
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

0,79 xG 1,11
45% Possession 55%
8 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 3
2 Offside 2
6 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Celta 1 1 0 0 +1 -0.8 3
2 Barcelona 1 1 0 0 +1 +2.2 3
3 Vallecano 1 1 0 0 +1 +0.0 3
4 Valladolid 1 1 0 0 +1 +0.1 3
5 Las Palmas 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.4 1
6 Sevilla 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.4 1
7 Ath Bilbao 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.5 1
8 Getafe 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.5 1
9 Mallorca 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.4 1
10 Real Madrid 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.4 1
11 Osasuna 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.8 1
12 Leganes 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.8 1
13 Betis 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.2 1
14 Girona 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.2 1
15 Alaves 1 0 0 1 -1 +0.8 0
16 Valencia 1 0 0 1 -1 -2.2 0
17 Sociedad 1 0 0 1 -1 -0.0 0
18 Espanol 1 0 0 1 -1 -0.1 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

1. Apr -24 Villarreal – Ath Madrid 1–2 12. Nov -23 Ath Madrid – Villarreal 3–1 4. Jun -23 Villarreal – Ath Madrid 2–2 21. Aug -22 Ath Madrid – Villarreal 0–2 9. Jan -22 Villarreal – Ath Madrid 2–2

Match report

Villarreal Ath Madrid
Yéremy Pino 🟨
10′
1–0 A. Danjuma ⚽
Diego Conde
18′
20′
⚽ Marcos Llorente 1–1
A. Griezmann
1–2 Koke ⚽
own goal
37′
40′
🟨 Robin Le Normand
43′
🟨 Pablo Barrios
Half-time 1–2
46′
🔁 J. Giménez
↦ A. Witsel
46′
🔁 Á. Correa
↦ A. Sørloth
50′
⚽ A. Sørloth 1–3
Pablo Barrios
54′
🔁 N. Molina
↦ Reinildo
64′
🔁 R. De Paul
↦ Koke
I. Akhomach 🔁
↦ Yeremy Pino
71′
N. Pépé 🔁
↦ Gerard Moreno
71′
P. Gueye 🔁
↦ Álex Baena
71′
78′
🔁 J. Alvarez
↦ A. Griezmann
Ayoze Pérez 🔁
↦ A. Danjuma
79′
81′
🟨 Samuel Lino
Ramon Terrats 🔁
↦ Dani Parejo
91′
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Villarreal

4-4-2
13 Diego Conde G
17 Kiko Femenía D
3 Raúl Albiol D
4 E. Bailly D
23 Sergi Cardona D
21 Yeremy Pino M
10 Dani Parejo M
14 Santi Comesaña M
16 Álex Baena M
7 Gerard Moreno F
9 A. Danjuma F
Bench (9)
11 I. Akhomach
19 N. Pépé
18 P. Gueye
22 Ayoze Pérez
20 Ramon Terrats
27 Arnau Solà
26 Pau Navarro
31 Iker Álvarez
5 W. Kambwala

Coach: Marcelino

Ath Madrid

3-4-2-1
13 J. Oblak G
3 César Azpilicueta D
20 A. Witsel D
24 Robin Le Normand D
14 Marcos Llorente M
8 Pablo Barrios M
6 Koke M
23 Reinildo M
7 A. Griezmann F
12 Samuel Lino F
9 A. Sørloth F
Bench (12)
2 J. Giménez
10 Á. Correa
16 N. Molina
5 R. De Paul
19 J. Alvarez
31 Antonio Gomis
27 I. Kostis
18 A. Vermeeren
17 Rodrigo Riquelme
15 Javi Galán
1 H. Moldovan
22 G. Simeone

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,33
🔒
U ✓
3,67
🔒
B
2,12
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,70
🔒
U2,5
2,19
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Guillermo Cuadra · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.