Bundesliga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Team trends
Paderborn
Freiburg
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Match stats
Half-time score: 1–2
The table before the match Paderborn 12. · Freiburg 3. ▾
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Dortmund
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 |
RB Leipzig
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 3 |
Freiburg
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 |
Fortuna Dusseldorf
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 |
Leverkusen
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 |
Wolfsburg
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 |
Ein Frankfurt
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 |
Bayern Munich
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 9 |
Hertha
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 10 |
M'gladbach
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 11 |
Schalke 04
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 12 |
Paderborn
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 |
Hoffenheim
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 |
Werder Bremen
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 |
FC Koln
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 |
Mainz
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 |
Augsburg
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 |
Union Berlin
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Odds comparison
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Referee
T Welz · 64 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.