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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Southampton

T U S S T

2–1

Full-time

Chelsea

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

32% Possession 68%

9 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 13. · Chelsea 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Man City	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Tottenham	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Fulham	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Leeds	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	-1	7
8	Brentford	5	1	3	1	+3	6
9	Newcastle	4	1	3	0	+2	6
10	Man United	4	2	0	2	-3	6
11	Liverpool	4	1	2	1	+8	5
12	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Southampton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Nott'm Forest	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-4	3
17	Bournemouth	4	1	0	3	-14	3
18	Everton	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Wolves	4	0	2	2	-2	2
20	Leicester	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Leeds	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+9	4
7	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+4	4
8	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Wolves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Everton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	Man City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
7	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	-2	3
8	Man United	2	1	0	1	-3	3
9	Newcastle	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Brentford	3	0	2	1	-1	2
11	Liverpool	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Leeds	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Everton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Leicester	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Bournemouth	2	0	0	2	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.