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League Cup

Referee: J Gillett

Southampton

U T T U T

2–1

Full-time

Lincoln

S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Lincoln

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/4 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

33%

75%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,0

This season — League Cup · 2/3 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

2,0

2,7

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

69% Possession 31%

16 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 18. · Lincoln 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milton Keynes Dons	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Blackburn	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Lincoln	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Sheffield Weds	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Stevenage	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Derby	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Nott'm Forest	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Bristol City	3	2	0	1	+3	6
10	Burnley	2	2	0	0	+3	6
11	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Crawley Town	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Newport County	3	2	0	1	-1	6
14	Gillingham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
15	Charlton	3	1	2	0	+1	5
16	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
17	Bournemouth	2	1	1	0	+3	4
18	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
19	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+3	4
20	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
21	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+2	4
22	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+1	4
23	Stockport County	2	1	1	0	+1	4
24	Morecambe	3	1	1	1	-1	4
25	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
26	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
27	Man United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Leeds	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Rochdale	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Forest Green	2	1	0	1	-1	3
44	Colchester	2	1	0	1	-1	3
45	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
46	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
47	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
48	Barrow	2	0	2	0	+0	2
49	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-1	1
58	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
59	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
90	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
92	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Milton Keynes Dons	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Crawley Town	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Stevenage	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Man United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Rochdale	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
16	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
19	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
22	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
23	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	Forest Green	2	1	0	1	-1	3
25	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
26	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
27	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
40	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
60	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
61	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lincoln	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Bristol City	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
5	Gillingham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
13	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
19	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Colchester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
26	Morecambe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Newport County	2	1	0	1	-2	3
28	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Rochdale	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
57	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.