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League Cup
Referee: R Ricardo
Southampton
U S S T S
1–4
Full-time
West Ham
T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton West Ham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,7
3,2
Scored
1,8
1,7
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — League Cup · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
2,0
4,0
Scored
2,0
3,0
Conceded
0,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

58% Possession 42%
12 Shots 18
5 Shots on target 8
3 Blocked shots 8
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 5
7 Free kicks against 8
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Southampton 14. · West Ham 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Norwich 2 2 0 0 +4 6
2 Middlesbrough 2 2 0 0 +3 6
3 West Brom 1 1 0 0 +3 3
4 Wolves 1 1 0 0 +3 3
5 Sheffield United 1 1 0 0 +3 3
6 Luton 1 1 0 0 +3 3
7 West Ham 1 1 0 0 +2 3
8 Blackpool 1 1 0 0 +2 3
9 Charlton 1 1 0 0 +2 3
10 Stoke 1 1 0 0 +2 3
11 Plymouth 1 1 0 0 +2 3
12 Bradford 1 1 0 0 +2 3
13 Leyton Orient 1 1 0 0 +2 3
14 Southampton 1 1 0 0 +2 3
15 Crawley Town 2 1 0 1 +1 3
16 Lincoln 1 1 0 0 +1 3
17 Stevenage 1 1 0 0 +1 3
18 Blackburn 1 1 0 0 +1 3
19 Crewe 1 1 0 0 +1 3
20 Cambridge United 1 1 0 0 +1 3
21 Watford 1 1 0 0 +1 3
22 Leicester 1 1 0 0 +1 3
23 Sheffield Weds 1 1 0 0 +1 3
24 Birmingham 1 1 0 0 +1 3
25 Walsall 1 1 0 0 +1 3
26 Peterborough 1 1 0 0 +1 3
27 Fleetwood Town 1 1 0 0 +1 3
28 Cardiff 2 1 0 1 +0 3
29 Tranmere 1 0 1 0 +0 1
30 Burnley 1 0 1 0 +0 1
31 Notts County 1 0 1 0 +0 1
32 Barnsley 1 0 1 0 +0 1
33 Wigan 1 0 1 0 +0 1
34 Preston 1 0 1 0 +0 1
35 Huddersfield 1 0 1 0 +0 1
36 QPR 1 0 1 0 +0 1
37 Millwall 1 0 1 0 +0 1
38 Bromley 1 0 1 0 +0 1
39 Reading 1 0 1 0 +0 1
40 Salford City 1 0 1 0 +0 1
41 Shrewsbury 1 0 1 0 +0 1
42 Stockport County 1 0 1 0 +0 1
43 AFC Wimbledon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
44 Newport County 1 0 1 0 +0 1
45 Rochdale 2 0 1 1 -2 1
46 Doncaster 2 0 1 1 -2 1
47 Swindon Town 1 0 0 1 -1 0
48 Derby 1 0 0 1 -1 0
49 Wycombe 1 0 0 1 -1 0
50 Burton Albion 1 0 0 1 -1 0
51 Accrington ST 1 0 0 1 -1 0
52 Barnet 1 0 0 1 -1 0
53 Northampton 1 0 0 1 -1 0
54 Wrexham 1 0 0 1 -1 0
55 Bolton 1 0 0 1 -1 0
56 Swansea 1 0 0 1 -1 0
57 Bristol City 1 0 0 1 -1 0
58 Bristol Rovers 1 0 0 1 -1 0
59 Chesterfield 1 0 0 1 -1 0
60 Portsmouth 1 0 0 1 -2 0
61 Grimsby 1 0 0 1 -2 0
62 Cheltenham 1 0 0 1 -2 0
63 Oldham 1 0 0 1 -2 0
64 Exeter City 1 0 0 1 -2 0
65 York 1 0 0 1 -2 0
66 Oxford 1 0 0 1 -2 0
67 Colchester 1 0 0 1 -2 0
68 Milton Keynes Dons 1 0 0 1 -3 0
69 Rotherham 1 0 0 1 -3 0
70 Port Vale 1 0 0 1 -3 0
71 Mansfield Town 1 0 0 1 -3 0
72 Gillingham 1 0 0 1 -3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Southampton West Ham
1–0 L. Scienza
10′
Cameron Bragg 🟨
26′
Leo Scienza 🟨
34′
41′
J. Ajala 1–1
L. Orford
Half-time 1–2
53′
J. Ajala 1–2
58′
🔁 T. Castellanos
↦ J. Piroe
59′
🔁 A. Engels
↦ M. Kante
59′
🔁 J. Bowen
↦ K. Lamadrid
59′
🔁 M. Solomon
↦ J. Ajala
F. Downes 🔁
↦ C. Bragg
60′
K. Matsuki 🔁
↦ T. Fellows
60′
S. Edozie 🔁
↦ L. Scienza
60′
F. Azaz 🔁
↦ R. Akachukwu
66′
75′
T. Castellanos 1–3
J. Veltman
C. Larin 🔁
↦ L. Dobbin
79′
84′
J. Bowen 1–4
L. Orford
87′
🔁 K. Casey
↦ D. Mukasa
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Southampton

4-3-3
1 D. Peretz G
14 J. Bree D
15 N. Wood D
5 J. Stephens D
34 Welington D
29 R. Akachukwu M
26 C. Bragg M
7 L. Scienza M
18 T. Fellows F
28 D. Mubama F
11 L. Dobbin F
Bench (9)
25 G. Long
3 R. Manning
17 J. Quarshie
10 F. Azaz
4 F. Downes
27 K. Matsuki
9 C. Larin
19 C. Archer
23 S. Edozie

Coach: Tonda Eckert

West Ham

4-4-1-1
49 F. Herrick G
34 J. Veltman D
58 A. Golambeckis D
3 M. Kilman D
63 E. Mayers D
21 K. Lamadrid M
61 L. Orford M
17 M. Kante M
66 J. Ajala M
14 D. Mukasa F
9 J. Piroe F
Bench (9)
1 M. Hermansen
2 K. Walker-Peters
42 K. Casey
30 O. Scarles
27 S. Magassa
7 A. Engels
20 J. Bowen
10 M. Solomon
11 T. Castellanos

Coach: Nuno Espirito Santo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

R Ricardo · 23 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.