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Ekstraklasa

Referee: S Marciniak

Jagiellonia

S S S U T

4–0

Full-time

Stal Mielec

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Jagiellonia Stal Mielec

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 47%

62%

31%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

85%

46%

Both score Ø 62%

69%

54%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

2,3

1,4

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

58% Possession 42%

18 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Jagiellonia 2. · Stal Mielec 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	13	8	3	2	+12	+4.1	27
2	Jagiellonia	13	8	2	3	+11	+6.2	26
3	Lech Poznan	13	7	4	2	+7	-3.4	25
4	Rakow	12	7	2	3	+9	+6.0	23
5	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	1	5	+10	+8.1	22
6	Legia	12	6	2	4	+2	+2.0	20
7	Zaglebie	13	6	2	5	-2	-0.9	20
8	Radomiak Radom	13	5	3	5	+0	+0.5	18
9	Piast Gliwice	14	2	10	2	+0	+10.6	16
10	Gornik Zabrze	13	4	4	5	-2	-6.8	16
11	Stal Mielec	13	4	3	6	+1	-6.1	15
12	Korona Kielce	13	3	6	4	+0	-0.9	15
13	Widzew Lodz	12	4	3	5	-2	-3.7	15
14	Cracovia	12	3	6	3	-4	-0.2	15
15	Warta Poznan	13	3	5	5	-1	-1.2	14
16	Puszcza	13	2	4	7	-12	-8.2	10
17	Ruch Chorzow	12	1	5	6	-9	-3.1	8
18	LKS Lodz	13	2	1	10	-20	-3.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	6	6	0	0	+13	+8.1	18
2	Lech Poznan	7	5	2	0	+11	+0.7	17
3	Rakow	7	5	2	0	+11	+5.5	17
4	Legia	7	5	0	2	+7	+5.2	15
5	Zaglebie	7	4	2	1	+3	+2.3	14
6	Slask Wroclaw	6	4	1	1	+7	+4.6	13
7	Pogon Szczecin	7	4	0	3	+4	+9.8	12
8	Widzew Lodz	5	4	0	1	+3	+1.9	12
9	Stal Mielec	7	3	2	2	+4	+0.3	11
10	Piast Gliwice	7	2	4	1	+1	+7.6	10
11	Korona Kielce	6	2	3	1	+3	+4.8	9
12	Radomiak Radom	6	2	3	1	+3	+1.5	9
13	Puszcza	6	2	3	1	+0	-0.7	9
14	Gornik Zabrze	6	2	2	2	-2	-2.9	8
15	LKS Lodz	6	2	1	3	-7	-2.2	7
16	Warta Poznan	7	1	3	3	-2	-0.3	6
17	Cracovia	6	1	3	2	-5	-1.0	6
18	Ruch Chorzow	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	7	4	2	1	+5	-0.5	14
2	Pogon Szczecin	6	3	1	2	+6	-1.7	10
3	Cracovia	6	2	3	1	+1	+0.8	9
4	Radomiak Radom	7	3	0	4	-3	-1.0	9
5	Warta Poznan	6	2	2	2	+1	-0.8	8
6	Gornik Zabrze	7	2	2	3	+0	-4.0	8
7	Jagiellonia	7	2	2	3	-2	-1.9	8
8	Lech Poznan	6	2	2	2	-4	-4.1	8
9	Piast Gliwice	7	0	6	1	-1	+3.0	6
10	Rakow	5	2	0	3	-2	+0.5	6
11	Korona Kielce	7	1	3	3	-3	-5.6	6
12	Zaglebie	6	2	0	4	-5	-3.2	6
13	Legia	5	1	2	2	-5	-3.2	5
14	Stal Mielec	6	1	1	4	-3	-6.4	4
15	Widzew Lodz	7	0	3	4	-5	-5.6	3
16	Ruch Chorzow	6	0	3	3	-5	-2.3	3
17	Puszcza	7	0	1	6	-12	-7.5	1
18	LKS Lodz	7	0	0	7	-13	-1.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.