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Puchar Polski
Referee: J Małyszek
Garbarnia Kraków
U S S
2–4
Full-time
Stal Mielec
T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Garbarnia Kraków Stal Mielec
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
2,7
3,0
Scored
1,7
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Puchar Polski · 2/1 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
2,0
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

6 Corners 6
3 Yellow cards 4
1 Red cards 1
The table before the match Garbarnia Kraków 10. · Stal Mielec 26. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Gornik Zabrze 2 2 0 0 +5 6
2 Warta Poznan 2 2 0 0 +5 6
3 Piast Gliwice 2 2 0 0 +5 6
4 Wisla 2 2 0 0 +4 6
5 Wisła Puławy 2 2 0 0 +4 6
6 Carina Gubin 2 2 0 0 +4 6
7 Stal Rzeszów 2 2 0 0 +4 6
8 Korona Kielce 2 2 0 0 +3 6
9 Cracovia 2 2 0 0 +2 6
10 Garbarnia Kraków 2 2 0 0 +2 6
11 Polonia Warszawa 3 2 0 1 -1 6
12 Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2 1 1 0 +1 4
13 Lech Poznan 1 1 0 0 +4 3
14 Widzew Lodz 1 1 0 0 +4 3
15 Polonia Bytom 1 1 0 0 +3 3
16 Legia 1 1 0 0 +3 3
17 Jagiellonia 1 1 0 0 +2 3
18 Rakow 1 1 0 0 +2 3
19 Arka Gdynia 1 1 0 0 +2 3
20 Znicz Pruszków 2 1 0 1 +1 3
21 Chojniczanka Chojnice 2 1 0 1 +1 3
22 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2 1 0 1 +1 3
23 Podbeskidzie 2 1 0 1 +1 3
24 Resovia Rzeszów 1 1 0 0 +1 3
25 Stal Stalowa Wola 2 1 0 1 +1 3
26 Stal Mielec 1 1 0 0 +1 3
27 Pogon Szczecin 1 1 0 0 +1 3
28 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 2 1 0 1 +0 3
29 Stal Brzeg 2 1 0 1 +0 3
30 Zaglebie 2 1 0 1 +0 3
31 Motor Lublin 2 1 0 1 +0 3
32 Puszcza 2 1 0 1 +0 3
33 Legia Warszawa II 2 1 0 1 -1 3
34 LKS Lodz 2 1 0 1 -1 3
35 Pogoń Siedlce 2 1 0 1 -1 3
36 Tychy 71 2 1 0 1 -1 3
37 Radunia Stężyca 2 1 0 1 -2 3
38 Jastrzębie 1 0 1 0 +0 1
39 Nieciecza 2 0 1 1 -1 1
40 Kalisz 2 0 1 1 -1 1
41 Górnik Łęczna 1 0 0 1 -1 0
42 Ruch Chorzow 1 0 0 1 -1 0
43 SKRA Częstochowa 1 0 0 1 -1 0
44 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
45 Sokół Kleczew 1 0 0 1 -1 0
46 Lechia Gdansk 1 0 0 1 -1 0
47 Olimpia Elbląg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
48 Radomiak Radom 1 0 0 1 -1 0
49 Stomil Olsztyn 1 0 0 1 -1 0
50 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1 0 0 1 -1 0
51 Odra Opole 1 0 0 1 -1 0
52 Zagłębie Lubin II 1 0 0 1 -1 0
53 Jagiellonia II 1 0 0 1 -1 0
54 KSZO 1929 1 0 0 1 -1 0
55 Lech Poznań II 1 0 0 1 -1 0
56 Chrobry Głogów 1 0 0 1 -2 0
57 Wisla Plock 1 0 0 1 -2 0
58 Gryf Wejherowo 1 0 0 1 -2 0
59 Slask Wroclaw 1 0 0 1 -2 0
60 Legnica 1 0 0 1 -2 0
61 Hutnik Kraków 1 0 0 1 -2 0
62 Śląsk Wrocław II 1 0 0 1 -2 0
63 Górnik Polkowice 1 0 0 1 -3 0
64 Pogoń Szczecin II 1 0 0 1 -3 0
65 Miedź Legnica II 1 0 0 1 -3 0
66 GKS Katowice 1 0 0 1 -4 0
67 Wieczysta Krakow 1 0 0 1 -4 0
68 Start Krasnystaw 1 0 0 1 -4 0
69 Concordia Elbląg 1 0 0 1 -4 0
70 Unia Skierniewice 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Garbarnia Kraków Stal Mielec
Daniel Morys 🟨
2′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 I. Shkurin
↦ M. Stępień
47′
🟨 Michał Trąbka
54′
⚽ M. Trąbka 0–1
Adrian Kajpust 🟥
56′
61′
🔁 M. Domański
↦ M. Trąbka
1–1 B. Żurek ⚽
65′
68′
🔁 K. Getinger
↦ K. Wołkowicz
68′
🔁 M. Guillaumier
↦ K. Hinokio
M. Opalski 🔁
↦ B. Żurek
70′
74′
🔁 Ł. Wolsztyński
↦ K. Meriluoto
2–1 K. Durda ⚽
76′
M. Nowak 🔁
↦ M. Klec
80′
86′
⚽ I. Shkurin 2–2
Feliks Grzybowski 🟨
90′
91′
🟨 Rafael Santos
J. Sutor 🔁
↦ K. Durda
93′
K. Wątroba 🔁
↦ F. Grzybowski
93′
94′
⚽ K. Getinger 2–3
99′
🟨 Krystian Getinger
101′
⚽ I. Shkurin 2–4
Michal Opalski 🟨
106′
B. Seweryn 🔁
↦ M. Czekaj
107′
111′
🟨 Rafael Santos
111′
🟥 Rafael Santos
Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Garbarnia Kraków

4-2-3-1
M. Bartusik G
D. Morys M
A. Kajpust D
M. Czekaj D
P. Moskiewicz M
K. Dziedzic M
M. Duda M
M. Klec M
B. Żurek M
F. Grzybowski M
K. Durda F
Bench (8)
M. Opalski
M. Nowak
J. Sutor
K. Wątroba
B. Seweryn
J. Szuta
O. Wielecki
P. Zagórowski

Coach: M. Pluta

Stal Mielec

3-4-2-1
K. Jałocha G
B. Esselink D
M. Matras D
M. Ehmann D
M. Stępień M
K. Hinokio M
M. Trąbka M
Ł. Gerstenstein M
Rafa Santos M
K. Wołkowicz D
K. Meriluoto F
Bench (9)
I. Shkurin
M. Domański
K. Getinger
M. Guillaumier
Ł. Wolsztyński
A. Jaunzems
Leândro
M. Dudek
P. Maj

Coach: K. Kiereś

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.