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Eredivisie

Referee: S van der Eijk

Excelsior

T T U T U

5–0

Full-time

Utrecht

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Utrecht

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 30/29 matches

Win Ø 32%

23%

41%

Points per game

0,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

60%

48%

Both score Ø 63%

63%

62%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,31 xG 0,84

59% Possession 41%

18 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Excelsior 16. · Utrecht 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	31	25	2	4	+49	+31.0	77
2	Feyenoord	31	17	7	7	+23	+25.4	58
3	Nijmegen	31	15	10	6	+24	+10.3	55
4	Twente	31	14	12	5	+19	+26.2	54
5	Ajax	30	13	12	5	+20	+8.9	51
6	AZ Alkmaar	31	14	7	10	+7	+19.3	49
7	Heerenveen	30	13	7	10	+4	+10.2	46
8	Utrecht	29	12	7	10	+13	+2.4	43
9	Groningen	30	12	6	12	+5	+12.2	42
10	Sparta Rotterdam	31	12	6	13	-17	-5.6	42
11	Go Ahead Eagles	31	8	13	10	+5	-17.2	37
12	For Sittard	31	10	6	15	-12	-15.5	36
13	Zwolle	31	8	10	13	-25	-17.6	34
14	Telstar	31	7	9	15	-10	-11.4	30
15	Volendam	30	7	7	16	-19	-24.2	28
16	Excelsior	30	7	7	16	-20	-17.7	28
17	NAC Breda	31	5	10	16	-23	-10.5	25
18	Heracles	30	5	4	21	-43	-26.2	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	12	2	2	+28	+18.5	38
2	Feyenoord	16	11	2	3	+16	+18.7	35
3	AZ Alkmaar	15	8	5	2	+13	+14.4	29
4	Heerenveen	16	8	5	3	+9	+13.1	29
5	Twente	16	8	5	3	+9	+15.2	29
6	Nijmegen	15	8	4	3	+15	+10.0	28
7	Ajax	14	8	3	3	+14	+13.4	27
8	Utrecht	14	8	2	4	+14	+7.3	26
9	Go Ahead Eagles	16	6	7	3	+13	+2.8	25
10	Zwolle	15	7	4	4	+1	+0.7	25
11	Volendam	15	6	5	4	+4	-3.3	23
12	Groningen	15	6	4	5	+9	+7.5	22
13	For Sittard	15	6	4	5	-1	-0.0	22
14	Sparta Rotterdam	15	6	4	5	-5	+0.4	22
15	Telstar	16	4	5	7	+0	-0.8	17
16	NAC Breda	16	4	5	7	-5	+1.6	17
17	Heracles	15	4	3	8	-10	-6.3	15
18	Excelsior	15	4	2	9	-7	-4.9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	13	0	2	+21	+12.5	39
2	Nijmegen	16	7	6	3	+9	+0.3	27
3	Twente	15	6	7	2	+10	+11.0	25
4	Ajax	16	5	9	2	+6	-4.5	24
5	Feyenoord	15	6	5	4	+7	+6.7	23
6	Groningen	15	6	2	7	-4	+4.6	20
7	AZ Alkmaar	16	6	2	8	-6	+4.9	20
8	Sparta Rotterdam	16	6	2	8	-12	-6.0	20
9	Utrecht	15	4	5	6	-1	-4.9	17
10	Heerenveen	14	5	2	7	-5	-3.0	17
11	For Sittard	16	4	2	10	-11	-15.5	14
12	Excelsior	15	3	5	7	-13	-12.8	14
13	Telstar	15	3	4	8	-10	-10.6	13
14	Go Ahead Eagles	15	2	6	7	-8	-20.0	12
15	Zwolle	16	1	6	9	-26	-18.3	9
16	NAC Breda	15	1	5	9	-18	-12.1	8
17	Volendam	15	1	2	12	-23	-20.8	5
18	Heracles	15	1	1	13	-33	-19.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.