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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kooij

Utrecht

S S S T S

4–1

Full-time

Excelsior

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,5

4,8

Scored

2,7

2,3

Conceded

0,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

4,0

Scored

2,5

0,5

Conceded

1,0

3,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,78 xG 1,31

50% Possession 50%

16 Shots 12

10 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 8. · Excelsior 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+9	+2.5	9
2	Nijmegen	2	2	0	0	+8	+3.2	6
3	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.6	6
4	Zwolle	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.2	6
5	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	0	1	-1	-1.3	6
6	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.0	4
7	Ajax	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.5	4
8	Utrecht	2	1	0	1	+3	+1.4	3
9	Volendam	3	0	3	0	+0	-3.0	3
10	NAC Breda	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.9	3
11	Twente	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.9	3
12	Groningen	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.6	3
13	Go Ahead Eagles	3	0	2	1	-3	-1.4	2
14	For Sittard	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
15	Heerenveen	3	0	1	2	-2	+2.5	1
16	Telstar	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.6	1
17	Excelsior	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.9	0
18	Heracles	2	0	0	2	-7	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+7	+1.7	6
2	Nijmegen	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.4	3
3	Utrecht	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.5	3
4	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
5	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
6	Feyenoord	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
7	Groningen	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.4	3
8	Sparta Rotterdam	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
9	NAC Breda	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
10	Zwolle	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
11	For Sittard	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
12	Volendam	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
13	Heerenveen	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.1	1
14	Telstar	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.1	1
15	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.2	1
16	Excelsior	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.4	0
17	Twente	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
18	Heracles	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nijmegen	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
2	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
3	Zwolle	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
4	Feyenoord	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
5	Twente	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
6	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.4	3
7	Volendam	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
8	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
9	Ajax	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
10	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
11	Heerenveen	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.4	0
12	Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
13	For Sittard	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
14	Telstar	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
15	NAC Breda	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.2	0
16	Heracles	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.5	0
17	Groningen	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.2	0
18	Excelsior	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.