Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Santander
Vallecano
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cadiz
|
41 | 19 | 12 | 10 | +12 | 69 |
| 2 |
Huesca
|
41 | 20 | 7 | 14 | +12 | 67 |
| 3 |
Almeria
|
41 | 17 | 12 | 12 | +19 | 63 |
| 4 |
Girona
|
41 | 17 | 12 | 12 | +7 | 63 |
| 5 |
Zaragoza
|
41 | 17 | 11 | 13 | +5 | 62 |
| 6 |
Fuenlabrada
|
41 | 15 | 15 | 11 | +8 | 60 |
| 7 |
Elche
|
41 | 15 | 13 | 13 | +7 | 58 |
| 8 |
Vallecano
|
41 | 12 | 21 | 8 | +9 | 57 |
| 9 |
Las Palmas
|
42 | 14 | 15 | 13 | +3 | 57 |
| 10 |
Mirandes
|
41 | 13 | 17 | 11 | -3 | 56 |
| 11 |
Tenerife
|
41 | 14 | 13 | 14 | +5 | 55 |
| 12 |
Sp Gijon
|
41 | 14 | 12 | 15 | +3 | 54 |
| 13 |
Alcorcon
|
41 | 12 | 18 | 11 | +0 | 54 |
| 14 |
Oviedo
|
41 | 13 | 14 | 14 | -3 | 53 |
| 15 |
Malaga
|
41 | 11 | 19 | 11 | +2 | 52 |
| 16 |
Ponferradina
|
41 | 12 | 15 | 14 | -4 | 51 |
| 17 |
Albacete
|
41 | 12 | 13 | 16 | -11 | 49 |
| 18 |
Lugo
|
41 | 11 | 16 | 14 | -12 | 49 |
| 19 |
La Coruna
|
41 | 11 | 15 | 15 | -18 | 48 |
| 20 |
Numancia
|
41 | 12 | 11 | 18 | -9 | 47 |
| 21 | Extremadura UD | 42 | 10 | 13 | 19 | -16 | 43 |
| 22 |
Santander
|
41 | 5 | 18 | 18 | -16 | 33 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Oviedo
Santander
Santander
Huesca
Fuenlabrada
Santander
Santander
Elche
Santander
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.