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League Cup

Referee: E Bell

Chelsea

U T S T S

2–0

Full-time

Luton

T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,19 xG 0,50

66% Possession 34%

26 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Ham	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
2	Peterborough	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
3	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
4	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.2	6
5	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
6	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
7	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
8	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
9	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
10	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
11	Bradford	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.3	4
12	Leyton Orient	2	1	1	0	+2	–	4
13	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
14	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
15	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
16	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.5	3
17	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.8	3
18	Everton	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
19	Luton	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
20	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
21	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
22	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
23	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
24	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
25	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
26	Crewe	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
27	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
28	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
29	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
30	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
31	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
32	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
33	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
34	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
35	Charlton	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
36	Stevenage	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.3	3
37	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
38	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.5	3
39	Burnley	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
40	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
41	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
42	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
43	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
44	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
45	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
46	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
47	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
51	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
52	Doncaster	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
53	Preston	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
54	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
55	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
56	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
57	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
58	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
59	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
60	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
62	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
63	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
64	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
65	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
67	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
68	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
69	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
70	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
71	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
72	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
73	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
74	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
75	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
76	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
77	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
78	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
79	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
80	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
81	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.2	6
2	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
3	Bradford	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.3	4
4	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
5	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.8	3
6	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
7	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
8	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
9	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
10	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
12	Crewe	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
13	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
14	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
15	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
16	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
17	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
18	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
19	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
20	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
21	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
22	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
23	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
24	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
25	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Preston	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
29	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
30	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
31	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
32	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
33	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
34	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
35	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
36	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
37	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
38	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
39	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
40	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
41	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
42	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
43	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
44	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
45	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
46	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.3	0
47	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
48	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Peterborough	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
2	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
3	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
4	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
5	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
6	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.5	3
7	Everton	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
8	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
9	Luton	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
10	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
11	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
12	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
13	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
14	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
15	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
16	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
17	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
18	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
20	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
21	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
22	Walsall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
23	Charlton	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
24	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
25	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
28	Doncaster	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
31	Leyton Orient	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
33	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
34	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
35	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
36	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
38	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
39	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
43	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
44	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
45	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
46	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
47	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
48	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.