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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Brighton

T S S S U

3–0

Full-time

Chelsea

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 38%

36%

39%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

45%

64%

Both score Ø 61%

61%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,14 xG 0,37

53% Possession 47%

15 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 0

2 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 5

0 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 9. · Chelsea 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	33	21	7	5	+37	+31.8	70
2	Man City	32	20	7	5	+36	+23.0	67
3	Man United	33	16	10	7	+13	+12.2	58
4	Aston Villa	33	17	7	9	+6	-5.2	58
5	Liverpool	33	16	7	10	+11	+14.7	55
6	Chelsea	33	13	9	11	+11	+17.6	48
7	Brentford	33	13	9	11	+4	+8.9	48
8	Bournemouth	33	11	15	7	+0	+3.8	48
9	Brighton	33	12	11	10	+6	+5.5	47
10	Everton	33	13	8	12	+1	-9.8	47
11	Sunderland	33	12	10	11	-4	-15.5	46
12	Fulham	33	13	6	14	-3	-4.6	45
13	Crystal Palace	32	11	10	11	-1	+7.9	43
14	Newcastle	33	12	6	15	-3	+4.0	42
15	Leeds	33	9	12	12	-7	+2.0	39
16	Nott'm Forest	33	9	9	15	-9	-9.0	36
17	West Ham	33	8	9	16	-17	-12.3	33
18	Tottenham	33	7	10	16	-11	-14.1	31
19	Burnley	33	4	8	21	-33	-37.2	20
20	Wolves	33	3	8	22	-37	-23.6	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	3	1	+26	+14.1	39
2	Arsenal	16	12	2	2	+25	+18.6	38
3	Aston Villa	17	11	2	4	+9	+1.9	35
4	Man United	16	10	3	3	+12	+12.6	33
5	Liverpool	16	9	4	3	+12	+10.4	31
6	Sunderland	16	8	5	3	+9	-3.7	29
7	Fulham	16	9	2	5	+8	+1.9	29
8	Brentford	17	7	7	3	+9	+11.8	28
9	Brighton	16	7	6	3	+7	+5.6	27
10	Bournemouth	16	6	8	2	+6	+11.6	26
11	Leeds	17	7	5	5	+5	+8.9	26
12	Newcastle	17	8	2	7	+2	+6.7	26
13	Chelsea	17	6	5	6	+2	+9.0	23
14	Everton	17	6	4	7	+1	-1.5	22
15	Crystal Palace	17	4	8	5	-3	+9.5	20
16	Nott'm Forest	17	4	6	7	-3	+1.9	18
17	West Ham	16	4	4	8	-6	-1.5	16
18	Wolves	16	3	3	10	-14	-8.3	12
19	Tottenham	17	2	5	10	-10	-4.2	11
20	Burnley	16	2	5	9	-10	-14.1	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	9	5	3	+12	+13.2	32
2	Man City	16	8	4	4	+10	+8.9	28
3	Chelsea	16	7	4	5	+9	+8.6	25
4	Man United	17	6	7	4	+1	-0.4	25
5	Everton	16	7	4	5	+0	-8.3	25
6	Liverpool	17	7	3	7	-1	+4.3	24
7	Crystal Palace	15	7	2	6	+2	-1.6	23
8	Aston Villa	16	6	5	5	-3	-7.2	23
9	Bournemouth	17	5	7	5	-6	-7.8	22
10	Tottenham	16	5	5	6	-1	-9.9	20
11	Brighton	17	5	5	7	-1	-0.1	20
12	Brentford	16	6	2	8	-5	-2.9	20
13	Nott'm Forest	16	5	3	8	-6	-10.9	18
14	West Ham	17	4	5	8	-11	-10.8	17
15	Sunderland	17	4	5	8	-13	-11.8	17
16	Newcastle	16	4	4	8	-5	-2.8	16
17	Fulham	17	4	4	9	-11	-6.5	16
18	Leeds	16	2	7	7	-12	-6.9	13
19	Burnley	17	2	3	12	-23	-23.0	9
20	Wolves	17	0	5	12	-23	-15.3	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.