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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Pires Costa

Nacional

T S T U T

3–3

Full-time

Rio Ave

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 28%

28%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

41%

50%

Both score Ø 46%

38%

53%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

1,75 xG 1,17

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 13. · Rio Ave 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	32	24	6	2	+59	+48.8	78
2	Benfica	32	25	3	4	+56	+46.7	78
3	Porto	32	20	5	7	+31	+23.3	65
4	Sp Braga	32	19	8	5	+26	+15.5	65
5	Guimaraes	32	14	12	6	+13	+11.7	54
6	Santa Clara	32	15	6	11	+2	+9.2	51
7	Famalicao	32	11	11	10	+5	-6.2	44
8	Casa Pia	32	11	9	12	-5	-9.8	42
9	Estoril	32	11	9	12	-9	-16.1	42
10	Moreirense	32	9	9	14	-11	-5.7	36
11	Rio Ave	32	9	9	14	-16	-17.0	36
12	Arouca	32	8	10	14	-17	-6.1	34
13	Nacional	32	9	6	17	-15	-9.4	33
14	Gil Vicente	32	8	8	16	-13	-8.9	32
15	Estrela	32	7	8	17	-21	-15.5	29
16	Farense	32	5	9	18	-21	-18.5	24
17	Boavista	32	6	6	20	-31	-20.7	24
18	AVS	32	4	12	16	-33	-21.4	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	1	1	+40	+30.1	43
2	Sp Lisbon	16	13	2	1	+25	+21.7	41
3	Porto	16	12	3	1	+25	+22.6	39
4	Guimaraes	16	9	5	2	+11	+8.4	32
5	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+14	+15.4	31
6	Santa Clara	16	9	2	5	+3	+10.6	29
7	Famalicao	16	6	7	3	+7	+5.5	25
8	Casa Pia	16	7	4	5	+2	-0.6	25
9	Rio Ave	16	6	7	3	+1	-2.7	25
10	Moreirense	16	6	7	3	+1	-1.7	25
11	Nacional	16	7	2	7	-4	-2.9	23
12	Estoril	16	6	4	6	-4	-6.2	22
13	Gil Vicente	16	5	4	7	-1	-0.2	19
14	Estrela	16	5	4	7	-5	-4.7	19
15	Arouca	16	4	6	6	-6	-3.0	18
16	AVS	16	3	6	7	-10	-9.8	15
17	Farense	16	3	2	11	-13	-3.2	11
18	Boavista	16	1	3	12	-22	-7.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	11	4	1	+34	+27.2	37
2	Benfica	16	11	2	3	+16	+16.6	35
3	Sp Braga	16	10	4	2	+12	+0.2	34
4	Porto	16	8	2	6	+6	+0.7	26
5	Guimaraes	16	5	7	4	+2	+3.3	22
6	Santa Clara	16	6	4	6	-1	-1.4	22
7	Estoril	16	5	5	6	-5	-9.9	20
8	Famalicao	16	5	4	7	-2	-11.7	19
9	Boavista	16	5	3	8	-9	-13.2	18
10	Casa Pia	16	4	5	7	-7	-9.2	17
11	Arouca	16	4	4	8	-11	-3.1	16
12	Farense	16	2	7	7	-8	-15.3	13
13	Gil Vicente	16	3	4	9	-12	-8.7	13
14	Moreirense	16	3	2	11	-12	-3.9	11
15	Rio Ave	16	3	2	11	-17	-14.3	11
16	Nacional	16	2	4	10	-11	-6.5	10
17	Estrela	16	2	4	10	-16	-10.8	10
18	AVS	16	1	6	9	-23	-11.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.