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Primeira Liga

Referee: C Pereira

Rio Ave

T T S U U

1–1

Full-time

Nacional

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,52 xG 0,98

63% Possession 37%

20 Shots 13

9 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 8

6 Corners 6

16 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.6	6
2	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.1	3
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.0	3
5	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
6	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.4	3
7	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
8	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
9	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
10	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.2	3
11	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
12	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
13	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
14	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.2	0
15	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0
16	AVS	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.2	0
17	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.7	3
2	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.1	3
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.0	3
5	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
6	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
7	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
8	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
9	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
10	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.2	0
11	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.4	0
12	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
2	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.4	3
3	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
4	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
5	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
6	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
7	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
8	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
9	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.0	0
10	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0
11	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.1	0
12	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.