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Primeira Liga

Referee: Sérgio Guelho

Nacional

S U T S T

3–1

Full-time

Casa Pia

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 34%

28%

40%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 46%

36%

56%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,86 xG 1,04

45% Possession 55%

14 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 13. · Casa Pia 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	26	19	5	2	+47	+40.3	62
2	Benfica	24	18	2	4	+38	+33.4	56
3	Porto	26	16	5	5	+31	+24.3	53
4	Sp Braga	26	16	5	5	+20	+14.9	53
5	Santa Clara	26	13	4	9	+2	+7.7	43
6	Guimaraes	25	9	11	5	+7	+9.8	38
7	Casa Pia	25	10	6	9	-1	-7.5	36
8	Estoril	25	9	8	8	-7	-16.1	35
9	Famalicao	26	8	10	8	+0	-7.7	34
10	Rio Ave	25	7	8	10	-13	-14.9	29
11	Moreirense	25	7	7	11	-7	-1.2	28
12	Arouca	25	7	7	11	-14	-7.5	28
13	Nacional	25	7	5	13	-12	-6.8	26
14	Gil Vicente	25	5	8	12	-13	-8.8	23
15	Estrela	25	5	8	12	-15	-12.5	23
16	AVS	26	4	11	11	-17	-12.9	23
17	Farense	26	3	8	15	-20	-18.6	17
18	Boavista	25	3	6	16	-26	-15.6	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	13	12	0	1	+33	+25.0	36
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+22	+18.8	34
3	Porto	13	10	3	0	+25	+22.5	33
4	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+10	+13.3	24
5	Guimaraes	12	6	5	1	+7	+7.4	23
6	Santa Clara	13	7	2	4	+1	+10.5	23
7	Casa Pia	13	6	4	3	+4	+0.6	22
8	Estoril	13	6	4	3	+0	-4.7	22
9	Rio Ave	12	5	6	1	+2	+0.4	21
10	Moreirense	12	5	5	2	+2	-1.3	20
11	Nacional	12	6	2	4	-1	-1.3	20
12	Famalicao	13	4	6	3	+1	+0.7	18
13	Gil Vicente	12	4	4	4	+3	+1.0	16
14	Estrela	13	4	4	5	-3	-5.0	16
15	AVS	13	3	5	5	-6	-7.8	14
16	Arouca	12	3	4	5	-6	-5.8	13
17	Farense	13	2	1	10	-13	-5.5	7
18	Boavista	13	1	3	9	-14	-4.3	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+10	+1.6	29
2	Sp Lisbon	13	8	4	1	+25	+21.5	28
3	Porto	13	6	2	5	+6	+1.8	20
4	Benfica	11	6	2	3	+5	+8.4	20
5	Santa Clara	13	6	2	5	+1	-2.8	20
6	Famalicao	13	4	4	5	-1	-8.4	16
7	Guimaraes	13	3	6	4	+0	+2.4	15
8	Arouca	13	4	3	6	-8	-1.7	15
9	Casa Pia	12	4	2	6	-5	-8.1	14
10	Estoril	12	3	4	5	-7	-11.4	13
11	Farense	13	1	7	5	-7	-13.2	10
12	AVS	13	1	6	6	-11	-5.1	9
13	Boavista	12	2	3	7	-12	-11.3	9
14	Moreirense	13	2	2	9	-9	+0.1	8
15	Rio Ave	13	2	2	9	-15	-15.3	8
16	Estrela	12	1	4	7	-12	-7.6	7
17	Gil Vicente	13	1	4	8	-16	-9.8	7
18	Nacional	13	1	3	9	-11	-5.6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.