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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Casa Pia

S T T S T

2–5

Full-time

Nacional

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

This season — Taça de Portugal · 3/4 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 13%

25%

Both score Ø 13%

25%

Average goals

1,7

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

0,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,5

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

47% Possession 53%

19 Shots 19

8 Shots on target 11

4 Blocked shots 1

8 Goalkeeper saves 9

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

22 Free kicks against 18

7 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Casa Pia 14. · Nacional 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+14	12
2	Vilaverdense	5	4	0	1	+9	12
3	Belenenses	5	4	0	1	+9	12
4	Beira-Mar	5	4	0	1	+9	12
5	Academico Viseu	5	4	0	1	+9	12
6	Famalicao	4	4	0	0	+8	12
7	Nacional	4	4	0	0	+6	12
8	Varzim	5	4	0	1	+2	12
9	São João Ver	4	3	0	1	+10	9
10	Leixoes	4	3	0	1	+9	9
11	Pêro Pinheiro	4	3	0	1	+8	9
12	Vitoria Setubal	4	3	0	1	+8	9
13	Dumiense	4	3	0	1	+6	9
14	Casa Pia	3	3	0	0	+5	9
15	Valadares Gaia	4	3	0	1	+4	9
16	Sanjoanense	4	3	0	1	+4	9
17	Rabo Peixe	4	3	0	1	+3	9
18	Sp Braga	3	3	0	0	+3	9
19	Camacha	4	2	1	1	+4	7
20	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+3	7
21	Oliveira Hospital	4	2	1	1	-5	7
22	FC Serpa	3	2	0	1	+8	6
23	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+5	6
24	Fontinhas	3	2	0	1	+5	6
25	Moreirense	3	2	0	1	+4	6
26	Montalegre	3	2	0	1	+4	6
27	Felgueiras 1932	3	2	0	1	+3	6
28	Sertanense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
29	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+2	6
30	Olhanense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
31	Farense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
32	Canelas 2010	3	2	0	1	+2	6
33	Arouca	3	2	0	1	+1	6
34	Pevidem	3	2	0	1	+1	6
35	Bragança	3	2	0	1	+1	6
36	Mafra	3	2	0	1	+0	6
37	Tirsense	3	2	0	1	-1	6
38	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+3	4
39	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
40	Penafiel	2	1	1	0	+1	4
41	Tondela	3	1	1	1	+1	4
42	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
43	Oriental Lisboa	3	1	1	1	+0	4
44	Pombal	3	1	1	1	-2	4
45	Machico	3	1	1	1	-3	4
46	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
47	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
48	Merelinense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
49	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
50	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
51	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
52	Amora	2	1	0	1	+1	3
53	Ferreiras	2	1	0	1	+1	3
54	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
55	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Real	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Resende	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
67	Lagos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
68	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
69	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
70	Joane	2	1	0	1	-2	3
71	Imortal Albufeira	2	1	0	1	-2	3
72	Courense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
73	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
74	Anadia	2	1	0	1	-5	3
75	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Vizela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
81	AR São Martinho	2	0	1	1	-2	1
82	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Sp Lisbon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
129	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
131	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
137	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
138	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
139	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
140	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
141	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
142	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
143	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
144	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
145	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
146	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
147	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
148	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
149	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
150	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
151	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
152	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vilaverdense	5	4	0	1	+9	12
2	Varzim	5	4	0	1	+2	12
3	Pêro Pinheiro	4	3	0	1	+8	9
4	Valadares Gaia	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Academico Viseu	4	3	0	1	+5	9
6	Nacional	3	3	0	0	+4	9
7	Oliveira Hospital	3	2	1	0	+2	7
8	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
9	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+6	6
10	Vitoria Setubal	3	2	0	1	+5	6
11	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	Sanjoanense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
13	Rabo Peixe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+2	6
15	Bragança	3	2	0	1	+1	6
16	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+3	4
17	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
18	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
19	Machico	2	1	1	0	+1	4
20	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
21	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
22	Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+4	3
23	Porto	1	1	0	0	+4	3
24	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	+3	3
25	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
26	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
27	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
28	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
29	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Lagos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Ferreiras	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Leixoes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Beira-Mar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Canelas 2010	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
48	Mafra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
49	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	Olhanense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
51	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	AR São Martinho	2	0	1	1	-2	1
55	Merelinense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Resende	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Vianense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	União de Leiria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Montalegre	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Joane	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
86	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
87	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
88	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
89	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
90	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
91	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
92	Anadia	1	0	0	1	-6	0
93	Courense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
94	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Beira-Mar	4	3	0	1	+8	9
3	Belenenses	4	3	0	1	+5	9
4	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+8	6
6	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Casa Pia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Farense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
10	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Arouca	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Pevidem	3	2	0	1	+1	6
14	Camacha	3	1	1	1	+3	4
15	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
16	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+8	3
17	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+4	3
18	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
19	Olhanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Dumiense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
23	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
24	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Amora	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Joane	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Sanjoanense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Imortal Albufeira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Real	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
48	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
49	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Vizela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
54	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
55	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	CF Os Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Sp Lisbon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Valadares Gaia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
91	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
92	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
96	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
97	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
98	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
99	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
100	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
101	Machico	1	0	0	1	-4	0
102	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
103	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-4	0
104	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
105	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
106	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
107	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-7	0
108	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.