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Eredivisie

Referee: S van der Eijk

Ajax

T T T T S

4–1

Full-time

Heerenveen

T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

1,5

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 9/10 matches

Win Ø 26%

22%

30%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

78%

70%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,4

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

2,3

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,21 xG 1,25

58% Possession 42%

14 Shots 12

8 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 8

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 15. · Heerenveen 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	11	0	0	+36	+27.0	33
2	Feyenoord	11	8	2	1	+26	+24.0	26
3	AZ Alkmaar	10	8	2	0	+21	+9.5	26
4	Twente	11	8	2	1	+14	+7.6	26
5	Go Ahead Eagles	11	5	3	3	+6	-6.1	18
6	Sparta Rotterdam	10	4	3	3	-1	-3.9	15
7	Excelsior	11	3	5	3	-1	-2.1	14
8	Zwolle	11	4	2	5	-3	-2.5	14
9	Heracles	11	3	3	5	-14	-9.8	12
10	Nijmegen	10	2	4	4	-2	-6.4	10
11	Heerenveen	10	3	1	6	-8	-5.0	10
12	For Sittard	11	2	4	5	-11	-1.6	10
13	Waalwijk	10	3	0	7	-11	-6.0	9
14	Almere City	10	2	3	5	-11	-3.8	9
15	Ajax	9	2	2	5	-6	-3.2	8
16	Volendam	11	2	2	7	-10	-3.0	8
17	Utrecht	11	2	2	7	-12	-9.0	8
18	Vitesse	11	2	2	7	-13	-5.8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	6	0	0	+16	+14.6	18
2	Go Ahead Eagles	6	5	1	0	+15	+4.3	16
3	Twente	5	5	0	0	+7	+2.6	15
4	Feyenoord	5	4	1	0	+16	+11.7	13
5	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+13	+8.1	13
6	Heracles	6	3	1	2	-4	-3.6	10
7	Nijmegen	6	2	2	2	+3	+1.5	8
8	For Sittard	5	2	2	1	+0	+3.0	8
9	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	2	1	-1	-1.8	8
10	Heerenveen	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.4	7
11	Volendam	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.4	7
12	Excelsior	6	1	4	1	-1	+1.0	7
13	Zwolle	6	2	1	3	-3	+1.8	7
14	Ajax	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.8	6
15	Waalwijk	5	2	0	3	-5	-5.0	6
16	Utrecht	5	1	1	3	-7	-4.6	4
17	Almere City	5	1	1	3	-7	-2.2	4
18	Vitesse	5	0	2	3	-6	-0.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+20	+12.4	15
2	Feyenoord	6	4	1	1	+10	+12.4	13
3	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+8	+1.4	13
4	Twente	6	3	2	1	+7	+5.0	11
5	Zwolle	5	2	1	2	+0	-4.2	7
6	Excelsior	5	2	1	2	+0	-3.0	7
7	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	1	2	+0	-2.1	7
8	Vitesse	6	2	0	4	-7	-5.7	6
9	Almere City	5	1	2	2	-4	-1.6	5
10	Utrecht	6	1	1	4	-5	-4.4	4
11	Waalwijk	5	1	0	4	-6	-1.0	3
12	Heerenveen	5	1	0	4	-8	-6.4	3
13	Nijmegen	4	0	2	2	-5	-7.9	2
14	Ajax	5	0	2	3	-6	-4.0	2
15	Go Ahead Eagles	5	0	2	3	-9	-10.4	2
16	Heracles	5	0	2	3	-10	-6.2	2
17	For Sittard	6	0	2	4	-11	-4.6	2
18	Volendam	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.