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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

PSV Eindhoven

S U S S U

5–2

Full-time

Ajax

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

4,0

Scored

2,7

1,3

Conceded

0,8

2,7

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 9/7 matches

Win Ø 57%

100%

14%

Points per game

3,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 88%

89%

86%

Both score Ø 52%

33%

71%

Average goals

3,7

3,9

Scored

3,3

1,6

Conceded

0,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

+3,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

4,31 xG 1,99

54% Possession 46%

26 Shots 16

9 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 1. · Ajax 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+27	+20.3	27
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	8	1	0	+21	+10.6	25
3	Twente	10	8	1	1	+14	+7.2	25
4	Feyenoord	10	7	2	1	+25	+20.3	23
5	Go Ahead Eagles	10	4	3	3	+2	-8.2	15
6	Sparta Rotterdam	10	4	3	3	-1	-3.9	15
7	Excelsior	9	3	4	2	+1	-0.9	13
8	Heracles	10	3	3	4	-8	-5.5	12
9	Zwolle	10	3	2	5	-5	-3.3	11
10	Heerenveen	10	3	1	6	-8	-5.0	10
11	For Sittard	10	2	4	4	-9	-0.8	10
12	Nijmegen	9	2	3	4	-2	-6.8	9
13	Waalwijk	9	3	0	6	-10	-2.3	9
14	Almere City	10	2	3	5	-11	-3.8	9
15	Vitesse	10	2	2	6	-9	-3.8	8
16	Utrecht	10	2	1	7	-12	-8.5	7
17	Ajax	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.8	5
18	Volendam	8	1	1	6	-10	-2.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+13	+12.3	15
2	Twente	5	5	0	0	+7	+2.6	15
3	Feyenoord	5	4	1	0	+16	+11.7	13
4	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+13	+8.1	13
5	Go Ahead Eagles	5	4	1	0	+11	+2.3	13
6	Heracles	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.7	10
7	For Sittard	5	2	2	1	+0	+3.0	8
8	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	2	1	-1	-1.8	8
9	Nijmegen	5	2	1	2	+3	+1.0	7
10	Heerenveen	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.4	7
11	Excelsior	5	1	3	1	-1	-0.2	6
12	Waalwijk	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.3	6
13	Volendam	4	1	1	2	-2	+1.1	4
14	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-5	+0.9	4
15	Almere City	5	1	1	3	-7	-2.2	4
16	Ajax	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.2	3
17	Utrecht	4	1	0	3	-7	-4.1	3
18	Vitesse	5	0	2	3	-6	-0.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+14	+8.0	12
2	AZ Alkmaar	4	4	0	0	+8	+2.6	12
3	Feyenoord	5	3	1	1	+9	+8.7	10
4	Twente	5	3	1	1	+7	+4.6	10
5	Excelsior	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.7	7
6	Zwolle	5	2	1	2	+0	-4.2	7
7	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	1	2	+0	-2.1	7
8	Vitesse	5	2	0	3	-3	-3.6	6
9	Almere City	5	1	2	2	-4	-1.6	5
10	Utrecht	6	1	1	4	-5	-4.4	4
11	Waalwijk	5	1	0	4	-6	-1.0	3
12	Heerenveen	5	1	0	4	-8	-6.4	3
13	Ajax	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.7	2
14	Nijmegen	4	0	2	2	-5	-7.9	2
15	Go Ahead Eagles	5	0	2	3	-9	-10.4	2
16	For Sittard	5	0	2	3	-9	-3.8	2
17	Heracles	5	0	2	3	-10	-6.2	2
18	Volendam	4	0	0	4	-8	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.