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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Newcastle

S S S S U

1–0

Full-time

Chelsea

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 14/13 matches

Win Ø 48%

50%

46%

Points per game

1,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

50%

62%

Both score Ø 56%

57%

54%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 4. · Chelsea 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	13	11	1	1	+20	34
2	Man City	14	10	2	2	+26	32
3	Tottenham	15	9	2	4	+10	29
4	Newcastle	14	7	6	1	+17	27
5	Man United	13	7	2	4	-1	23
6	Liverpool	14	6	4	4	+11	22
7	Brighton	13	6	3	4	+5	21
8	Chelsea	13	6	3	4	+1	21
9	Fulham	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Brentford	15	4	7	4	-2	19
11	Crystal Palace	14	5	4	5	-3	19
12	Leicester	15	5	2	8	+0	17
13	Bournemouth	15	4	4	7	-14	16
14	Leeds	14	4	3	7	-4	15
15	Aston Villa	14	4	3	7	-7	15
16	West Ham	15	4	2	9	-5	14
17	Everton	15	3	5	7	-6	14
18	Nott'm Forest	15	3	4	8	-19	13
19	Southampton	15	3	3	9	-14	12
20	Wolves	14	2	4	8	-14	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	7	0	1	+21	21
2	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	+12	18
3	Tottenham	8	6	0	2	+10	18
4	Liverpool	8	5	2	1	+13	17
5	Newcastle	7	4	3	0	+11	15
6	Aston Villa	7	4	1	2	+5	13
7	Man United	6	4	1	1	+5	13
8	Crystal Palace	7	4	1	2	+2	13
9	Brentford	7	3	3	1	+6	12
10	Fulham	7	3	3	1	+2	12
11	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+6	11
12	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+4	11
13	Leeds	7	3	2	2	+3	11
14	Bournemouth	8	3	2	3	+1	11
15	Nott'm Forest	8	3	2	3	-1	11
16	West Ham	8	3	1	4	-1	10
17	Leicester	7	2	2	3	+3	8
18	Everton	7	2	2	3	+0	8
19	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-6	8
20	Southampton	7	1	3	3	-4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+8	16
2	Newcastle	7	3	3	1	+6	12
3	Man City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
4	Tottenham	7	3	2	2	+0	11
5	Brighton	7	3	1	3	-1	10
6	Chelsea	7	3	1	3	-3	10
7	Man United	7	3	1	3	-6	10
8	Leicester	8	3	0	5	-3	9
9	Fulham	7	2	1	4	-3	7
10	Brentford	8	1	4	3	-8	7
11	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-5	6
12	Everton	8	1	3	4	-6	6
13	Southampton	8	2	0	6	-10	6
14	Liverpool	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Bournemouth	7	1	2	4	-15	5
16	West Ham	7	1	1	5	-4	4
17	Leeds	7	1	1	5	-7	4
18	Wolves	7	0	2	5	-8	2
19	Aston Villa	7	0	2	5	-12	2
20	Nott'm Forest	7	0	2	5	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.