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League Cup

Referee: R Jones

Man United

T S S S T

0–3

Full-time

Newcastle

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

3,0

1,0

Scored

3,0

1,0

Conceded

0,0

Goal diff per game

+3,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

62% Possession 38%

13 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 26. · Newcastle 30. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Port Vale	4	3	1	0	+3	10
3	Blackburn	4	3	0	1	+10	9
4	Everton	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+4	9
6	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Ipswich	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Exeter City	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+4	6
10	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+3	6
11	West Ham	2	2	0	0	+3	6
12	Bournemouth	3	2	0	1	+2	6
13	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+2	6
14	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+2	6
15	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
16	Mansfield Town	4	1	2	1	+1	5
17	Reading	2	1	1	0	+4	4
18	Portsmouth	2	1	1	0	+2	4
19	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
20	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
21	Lincoln	3	1	1	1	+1	4
22	Sutton Utd	3	1	1	1	+0	4
23	Cardiff	3	1	1	1	-1	4
24	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+4	3
25	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
26	Man United	1	1	0	0	+3	3
27	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
28	Gillingham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
32	Peterborough	3	0	3	0	+0	3
33	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Luton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	3
38	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
39	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
41	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-7	3
42	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
43	Stevenage	2	0	2	0	+0	2
44	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
45	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
46	Bradford	3	0	2	1	-2	2
47	Salford City	3	0	2	1	-4	2
48	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
62	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-2	1
63	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-5	1
64	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Man City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
92	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Port Vale	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Exeter City	4	2	1	1	+1	7
4	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Ipswich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Mansfield Town	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
12	Everton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Man United	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
19	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
25	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-7	3
26	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
27	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
28	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Sutton Utd	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Salford City	2	0	1	1	-4	1
41	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Bradford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Lincoln	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+6	3
8	Reading	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Sutton Utd	2	1	0	1	+0	3
19	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	3
21	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
22	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
23	Peterborough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
24	Bradford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
25	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
26	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Man City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
62	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
63	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.