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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Chelsea

T U S S S

2–0

Full-time

Newcastle

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,5

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 39%

48%

30%

Points per game

1,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

52%

48%

Both score Ø 48%

43%

52%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

65% Possession 35%

18 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 6. · Newcastle 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	23	16	5	2	+32	53
2	Man United	24	13	7	4	+19	46
3	Leicester	24	14	4	6	+16	46
4	West Ham	24	12	6	6	+9	42
5	Liverpool	24	11	7	6	+13	40
6	Chelsea	23	11	6	6	+14	39
7	Everton	22	11	4	7	+4	37
8	Aston Villa	22	11	3	8	+12	36
9	Tottenham	23	10	6	7	+11	36
10	Arsenal	24	10	4	10	+6	34
11	Leeds	23	10	2	11	-2	32
12	Wolves	24	8	6	10	-7	30
13	Southampton	23	8	5	10	-9	29
14	Crystal Palace	24	8	5	11	-15	29
15	Brighton	24	5	11	8	-5	26
16	Burnley	23	7	5	11	-12	26
17	Newcastle	23	7	4	12	-13	25
18	Fulham	23	3	9	11	-12	18
19	West Brom	24	2	7	15	-36	13
20	Sheffield United	24	3	2	19	-25	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	2	1	+18	29
2	Liverpool	12	7	2	3	+8	23
3	West Ham	12	6	3	3	+5	21
4	Chelsea	11	5	4	2	+10	19
5	Leicester	12	6	1	5	+3	19
6	Man United	12	5	3	4	+7	18
7	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+4	18
8	Arsenal	12	5	3	4	+3	18
9	Aston Villa	10	5	1	4	+5	16
10	Southampton	12	5	1	6	+1	16
11	Wolves	12	4	4	4	+0	16
12	Crystal Palace	12	4	3	5	-7	15
13	Leeds	11	4	2	5	+0	14
14	Everton	11	4	2	5	-1	14
15	Burnley	11	4	2	5	-4	14
16	Newcastle	12	4	2	6	-6	14
17	Brighton	12	1	7	4	-4	10
18	Sheffield United	12	2	1	9	-9	7
19	Fulham	12	1	4	7	-10	7
20	West Brom	12	1	4	7	-24	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	12	8	4	0	+12	28
2	Leicester	12	8	3	1	+13	27
3	Man City	11	7	3	1	+14	24
4	Everton	11	7	2	2	+5	23
5	West Ham	12	6	3	3	+4	21
6	Aston Villa	12	6	2	4	+7	20
7	Chelsea	12	6	2	4	+4	20
8	Tottenham	11	5	3	3	+7	18
9	Leeds	12	6	0	6	-2	18
10	Liverpool	12	4	5	3	+5	17
11	Arsenal	12	5	1	6	+3	16
12	Brighton	12	4	4	4	-1	16
13	Wolves	12	4	2	6	-7	14
14	Crystal Palace	12	4	2	6	-8	14
15	Southampton	11	3	4	4	-10	13
16	Burnley	12	3	3	6	-8	12
17	Fulham	11	2	5	4	-2	11
18	Newcastle	11	3	2	6	-7	11
19	West Brom	12	1	3	8	-12	6
20	Sheffield United	12	1	1	10	-16	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.