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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Derby

T S S T S

1–0

Full-time

Birmingham

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 38/38 matches

Win Ø 40%

42%

37%

Points per game

1,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

50%

47%

Both score Ø 61%

66%

55%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,16 xG 0,16

51% Possession 49%

17 Shots 3

6 Shots on target 0

6 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 8. · Birmingham 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	38	23	8	7	+38	+30.3	77
2	Ipswich	37	19	11	7	+28	+26.6	68
3	Millwall	36	19	8	9	+9	+8.3	65
4	Middlesbrough	35	18	9	8	+15	+18.4	63
5	Wrexham	38	16	12	10	+8	-3.3	60
6	Hull	35	18	6	11	+6	-19.8	60
7	Southampton	36	16	11	9	+17	+15.0	59
8	Derby	38	16	9	13	+7	-0.9	57
9	Watford	38	14	13	11	+4	+9.4	55
10	Birmingham	38	14	11	13	+0	+15.1	53
11	Swansea	38	15	7	16	-2	-4.9	52
12	Preston	39	13	13	13	-4	-13.7	52
13	Norwich	38	15	6	17	+5	-4.1	51
14	Stoke	39	14	9	16	+3	-10.4	51
15	Bristol City	38	14	9	15	+0	-3.8	51
16	Sheffield United	38	15	5	18	+1	+11.8	50
17	QPR	38	14	8	16	-11	-2.4	50
18	Charlton	38	12	12	14	-9	-14.8	48
19	Leicester	38	11	11	16	-9	-17.9	44
20	Blackburn	38	11	9	18	-13	+5.3	42
21	Portsmouth	37	10	10	17	-12	+0.4	40
22	West Brom	38	10	10	18	-15	+6.9	40
23	Oxford	38	9	12	17	-13	-9.9	39
24	Sheffield Weds	38	1	9	28	-53	-41.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	19	14	3	2	+25	+21.0	45
2	Ipswich	19	12	6	1	+22	+23.7	42
3	Millwall	19	11	3	5	+7	+7.8	36
4	Birmingham	19	9	8	2	+14	+18.8	35
5	Watford	19	10	5	4	+9	+8.3	35
6	Swansea	19	10	5	4	+9	+0.2	35
7	Middlesbrough	18	9	6	3	+9	+9.6	33
8	Wrexham	20	9	6	5	+6	+7.7	33
9	Southampton	17	9	5	3	+13	+10.5	32
10	Hull	17	9	3	5	+3	-7.2	30
11	Preston	20	8	6	6	+2	-2.6	30
12	Stoke	19	8	5	6	+8	+1.3	29
13	West Brom	19	7	7	5	+0	+12.1	28
14	Charlton	18	8	4	6	+0	+0.3	28
15	Sheffield United	18	8	3	7	+8	+13.5	27
16	Derby	19	7	6	6	+1	+1.0	27
17	QPR	18	8	2	8	-1	+6.0	26
18	Bristol City	19	7	4	8	+2	-0.1	25
19	Norwich	19	8	1	10	+0	+1.0	25
20	Leicester	19	7	4	8	-2	-2.9	25
21	Portsmouth	19	6	4	9	-1	+7.1	22
22	Oxford	19	5	7	7	-7	-0.9	22
23	Blackburn	19	4	6	9	-7	+6.7	18
24	Sheffield Weds	20	0	5	15	-31	-20.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	19	9	5	5	+13	+9.4	32
2	Derby	19	9	3	7	+6	-1.9	30
3	Middlesbrough	17	9	3	5	+6	+8.9	30
4	Hull	18	9	3	6	+3	-12.7	30
5	Millwall	17	8	5	4	+2	+0.5	29
6	Southampton	19	7	6	6	+4	+4.5	27
7	Wrexham	18	7	6	5	+2	-10.9	27
8	Ipswich	18	7	5	6	+6	+2.9	26
9	Norwich	19	7	5	7	+5	-5.1	26
10	Bristol City	19	7	5	7	-2	-3.7	26
11	Blackburn	19	7	3	9	-6	-1.5	24
12	QPR	20	6	6	8	-10	-8.4	24
13	Sheffield United	20	7	2	11	-7	-1.7	23
14	Stoke	20	6	4	10	-5	-11.7	22
15	Preston	19	5	7	7	-6	-11.1	22
16	Watford	19	4	8	7	-5	+1.1	20
17	Charlton	20	4	8	8	-9	-15.1	20
18	Leicester	19	4	7	8	-7	-14.9	19
19	Portsmouth	18	4	6	8	-11	-6.7	18
20	Birmingham	19	5	3	11	-14	-3.7	18
21	Oxford	19	4	5	10	-6	-9.0	17
22	Swansea	19	5	2	12	-11	-5.1	17
23	West Brom	19	3	3	13	-15	-5.2	12
24	Sheffield Weds	18	1	4	13	-22	-21.7	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.