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Championship

Referee: J Brooks

Derby

S S U S T

2–2

Full-time

Birmingham

U T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,3

4,0

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

This season — Championship · 28/30 matches

Win Ø 28%

29%

27%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

39%

53%

Both score Ø 47%

54%

40%

Average goals

2,0

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

60% Possession 40%

16 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 6

4 Offside 0

4 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 17. · Birmingham 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	29	18	7	4	+49	61
2	Blackburn	30	16	8	6	+19	56
3	Bournemouth	29	15	8	6	+20	53
4	West Brom	31	14	9	8	+14	51
5	QPR	29	15	6	8	+12	51
6	Middlesbrough	29	14	6	9	+8	48
7	Coventry	29	13	7	9	+10	46
8	Huddersfield	28	12	9	7	+6	45
9	Sheffield United	27	13	5	9	+9	44
10	Nott'm Forest	27	12	6	9	+9	42
11	Stoke	29	12	6	11	+5	42
12	Luton	27	11	8	8	+9	41
13	Preston	29	10	10	9	-1	40
14	Blackpool	29	11	7	11	-2	40
15	Bristol City	30	10	7	13	-12	37
16	Millwall	28	9	9	10	-1	36
17	Derby	28	8	11	9	-1	35
18	Swansea	27	9	8	10	-3	35
19	Birmingham	30	8	9	13	-15	33
20	Hull	29	9	5	15	-7	32
21	Reading	29	9	4	16	-20	31
22	Cardiff	27	6	6	15	-19	24
23	Peterboro	27	5	5	17	-32	20
24	Peterborough	27	5	5	17	-32	20
25	Barnsley	28	2	9	17	-25	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	16	11	3	2	+18	36
2	West Brom	15	9	5	1	+16	32
3	Middlesbrough	16	10	2	4	+10	32
4	Fulham	15	9	4	2	+24	31
5	Coventry	15	9	2	4	+12	29
6	QPR	15	8	4	3	+10	28
7	Blackpool	16	8	2	6	+0	26
8	Luton	14	7	4	3	+9	25
9	Huddersfield	13	7	4	2	+6	25
10	Preston	15	6	7	2	+4	25
11	Bournemouth	13	7	3	3	+12	24
12	Stoke	15	7	3	5	+5	24
13	Derby	13	6	5	2	+5	23
14	Nott'm Forest	15	7	2	6	+3	23
15	Swansea	13	6	4	3	+6	22
16	Millwall	13	6	4	3	+4	22
17	Sheffield United	12	6	2	4	+10	20
18	Bristol City	15	5	5	5	-1	20
19	Birmingham	15	5	5	5	-2	20
20	Reading	16	5	4	7	-8	19
21	Hull	15	5	3	7	-2	18
22	Peterboro	13	4	4	5	-2	16
23	Peterborough	13	4	4	5	-2	16
24	Barnsley	13	2	4	7	-8	10
25	Cardiff	12	2	1	9	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	14	9	3	2	+25	30
2	Bournemouth	16	8	5	3	+8	29
3	Sheffield United	15	7	3	5	-1	24
4	QPR	14	7	2	5	+2	23
5	Blackburn	14	5	5	4	+1	20
6	Huddersfield	15	5	5	5	+0	20
7	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+6	19
8	West Brom	16	5	4	7	-2	19
9	Stoke	14	5	3	6	+0	18
10	Coventry	14	4	5	5	-2	17
11	Cardiff	15	4	5	6	-9	17
12	Bristol City	15	5	2	8	-11	17
13	Luton	13	4	4	5	+0	16
14	Middlesbrough	13	4	4	5	-2	16
15	Preston	14	4	3	7	-5	15
16	Blackpool	13	3	5	5	-2	14
17	Millwall	15	3	5	7	-5	14
18	Hull	14	4	2	8	-5	14
19	Swansea	14	3	4	7	-9	13
20	Birmingham	15	3	4	8	-13	13
21	Derby	15	2	6	7	-6	12
22	Reading	13	4	0	9	-12	12
23	Barnsley	15	0	5	10	-17	5
24	Peterboro	14	1	1	12	-30	4
25	Peterborough	14	1	1	12	-30	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.