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Championship

Referee: Ben Toner

Birmingham

S T T U T

1–1

Full-time

Derby

T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 36%

36%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

55%

50%

Both score Ø 64%

55%

73%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,98 xG 0,79

74% Possession 26%

25 Shots 5

9 Shots on target 1

11 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 8

12 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Birmingham 14. · Derby 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	22	14	6	2	+30	+20.1	48
2	Middlesbrough	20	11	5	4	+6	+6.0	38
3	Ipswich	22	10	7	5	+15	+18.5	37
4	Preston	22	9	9	4	+7	-4.0	36
5	Millwall	21	10	5	6	-4	+1.2	35
6	Hull	20	10	4	6	+3	-10.2	34
7	QPR	22	10	4	8	-2	+3.1	34
8	Stoke	22	10	3	9	+7	-4.6	33
9	Bristol City	22	9	6	7	+6	+0.6	33
10	Watford	22	8	8	6	+3	+5.8	32
11	Derby	22	8	7	7	+1	-4.0	31
12	Leicester	22	8	7	7	+0	-5.3	31
13	Southampton	21	8	6	7	+5	+9.8	30
14	Birmingham	22	8	5	9	+1	+8.8	29
15	Wrexham	22	6	10	6	+0	-7.1	28
16	West Brom	22	8	4	10	-4	+2.0	28
17	Charlton	21	7	6	8	-5	-8.8	27
18	Sheffield United	22	8	2	12	-3	+8.6	26
19	Swansea	22	7	5	10	-6	-7.1	26
20	Blackburn	21	7	4	10	-4	+7.0	25
21	Portsmouth	21	5	6	10	-10	-6.4	21
22	Oxford	22	4	7	11	-9	-5.9	19
23	Norwich	22	4	6	12	-10	-9.9	18
24	Sheffield Weds	21	1	6	14	-27	-18.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	10	8	2	0	+19	+9.8	26
2	Ipswich	12	7	4	1	+12	+15.6	25
3	Watford	12	7	4	1	+8	+6.8	25
4	Middlesbrough	10	7	2	1	+6	+1.0	23
5	Hull	11	7	2	2	+4	-2.9	23
6	Birmingham	10	6	3	1	+13	+12.0	21
7	QPR	11	6	2	3	+5	+7.3	20
8	Preston	12	5	5	2	+4	-1.1	20
9	Stoke	10	6	1	3	+9	+1.7	19
10	West Brom	10	5	4	1	+5	+5.6	19
11	Millwall	10	6	1	3	+0	+4.2	19
12	Southampton	10	5	3	2	+6	+7.5	18
13	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	+5	-0.2	18
14	Swansea	12	5	3	4	-1	-1.6	18
15	Wrexham	11	4	5	2	+2	+2.8	17
16	Charlton	10	5	2	3	+1	-2.1	17
17	Leicester	10	4	4	2	+3	+2.6	16
18	Sheffield United	11	4	2	5	+3	+9.6	14
19	Portsmouth	11	4	2	5	-1	+1.7	14
20	Derby	12	3	5	4	-3	-0.0	14
21	Oxford	10	2	4	4	-4	+1.1	10
22	Blackburn	11	2	3	6	-5	+5.4	9
23	Norwich	10	2	1	7	-5	-1.2	7
24	Sheffield Weds	11	0	2	9	-22	-8.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	12	6	4	2	+11	+10.3	22
2	Derby	10	5	2	3	+4	-4.0	17
3	Preston	10	4	4	2	+3	-2.9	16
4	Blackburn	10	5	1	4	+1	+1.7	16
5	Millwall	11	4	4	3	-4	-2.9	16
6	Bristol City	10	4	3	3	+1	+0.9	15
7	Middlesbrough	10	4	3	3	+0	+5.0	15
8	Leicester	12	4	3	5	-3	-7.9	15
9	Stoke	12	4	2	6	-2	-6.4	14
10	QPR	11	4	2	5	-7	-4.2	14
11	Ipswich	10	3	3	4	+3	+2.9	12
12	Southampton	11	3	3	5	-1	+2.3	12
13	Sheffield United	11	4	0	7	-6	-1.0	12
14	Hull	9	3	2	4	-1	-7.3	11
15	Wrexham	11	2	5	4	-2	-9.9	11
16	Norwich	12	2	5	5	-5	-8.7	11
17	Charlton	11	2	4	5	-6	-6.7	10
18	Oxford	12	2	3	7	-5	-7.0	9
19	West Brom	12	3	0	9	-9	-3.7	9
20	Swansea	10	2	2	6	-5	-5.5	8
21	Birmingham	12	2	2	8	-12	-3.2	8
22	Watford	10	1	4	5	-5	-1.0	7
23	Sheffield Weds	10	1	4	5	-5	-9.3	7
24	Portsmouth	10	1	4	5	-9	-8.2	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.