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Championship

Referee: Tom Reeves

Norwich

T S S T S

2–1

Full-time

Birmingham

U T S U U

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Norwich Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

80%

60%

Both score Ø 70%

60%

80%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,01 xG 1,63

50% Possession 50%

15 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 7

3 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 9

6 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Norwich 16. · Birmingham 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	6	3	2	1	+7	+3.3	11
2	West Ham	6	3	2	1	+5	+1.2	11
3	Swansea	6	3	2	1	+4	+1.2	11
4	Middlesbrough	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.4	10
5	QPR	5	3	1	1	+3	+2.0	10
6	Bristol City	5	3	1	1	+2	-4.2	10
7	West Brom	5	3	1	1	+2	-1.9	10
8	Charlton	5	3	1	1	-1	-4.4	10
9	Millwall	5	3	0	2	+2	+2.3	9
10	Sheffield United	6	2	3	1	+0	-1.7	9
11	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+3	+4.5	8
12	Watford	6	2	2	2	-1	-2.6	8
13	Wrexham	6	1	4	1	+2	+1.4	7
14	Birmingham	5	1	4	0	+1	+0.7	7
15	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-1	-3.8	7
16	Norwich	5	2	0	3	+0	+0.4	6
17	Portsmouth	5	2	0	3	-1	-0.2	6
18	Blackburn	6	1	2	3	-2	-2.1	5
19	Lincoln	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.4	5
20	Cardiff	6	0	4	2	-3	+3.0	4
21	Derby	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.6	4
22	Bolton	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.7	4
23	Burnley	6	0	3	3	-6	-0.2	3
24	Preston	6	1	0	5	-6	+2.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	3	3	0	0	+8	+3.9	9
2	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.4	7
3	Watford	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.4	7
4	West Ham	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.2	6
5	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.7	6
6	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.6	6
7	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.9	6
8	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
9	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.9	5
10	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
11	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.6	4
12	Sheffield United	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.5	4
13	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
14	Birmingham	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.0	3
15	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.6	3
16	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.2	3
17	Bolton	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.1	3
18	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.6	3
19	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.1	3
20	Preston	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.2	3
21	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.0	2
22	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.9	2
23	Lincoln	3	0	2	1	-2	+2.6	2
24	Derby	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.6	7
2	QPR	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.3	6
3	Swansea	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.0	6
4	Wrexham	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.5	5
5	West Ham	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.0	5
6	Sheffield United	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.2	5
7	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
8	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.4	4
9	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
10	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.8	4
11	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
12	Lincoln	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
13	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.3	3
14	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.0	3
15	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
16	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.6	3
17	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.6	2
18	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.3	2
19	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.4	1
20	Watford	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.3	1
21	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.2	1
22	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-5	-5.4	1
23	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.6	1
24	Preston	3	0	0	3	-3	+1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Feb -26 Norwich – Birmingham 1–2 22. Nov -25 Birmingham – Norwich 4–1 4. May -24 Birmingham – Norwich 1–0 30. Sep -23 Norwich – Birmingham 2–0 21. Feb -23 Norwich – Birmingham 3–1

Match report

Norwich Birmingham

Benjamin Chrisene 🟨

13′

Jose Cordoba 🟨

25′

1–0 Oscar Schwartau ⚽

Mathias Kvistgaarden

28′

2–0 Papa Amadou Diallo ⚽

Andre Brooks

39′

Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Norwich

4-2-3-1

V. Kovačević G

J. Stacey D

Ruairi McConville D

J. Córdoba D

B. Chrisene D

K. McLean M

P. Mattsson M

A. Brooks M

P. Diallo M

O. Schwartau M

M. Kvistgaarden F

Bench (9)

17 A. Crnac

6 H. Darling

35 K. Fisher

32 D. Grimshaw

25 P. Maghoma

24 J. Makama

49 A. Musaba

16 Jacob Wright

13 D. Yongwa

Coach: P. Clement

Birmingham

4-2-3-1

J. Beadle G

B. Osayi-Samuel D

P. Neumann D

C. Klarer D

K. Lund D

T. Iwata M

Paik Seung-Ho M

Carlos Vicente M

J. Stansfield M

L. Millar M

A. Priske F

Bench (9)

23 D. Fry

27 K. Fujimoto

2 E. Laird

30 Bradley Mayo

32 L. Vázquez

33 M. Ducksch

20 A. Cochrane

3 L. Buchanan

21 R. Allsop

Coach: C. Davies

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

1,90

🔒

Dafabet 1,93 10Bet 1,90 Betano 1,90 SBO 1,89 Pinnacle 1,89 Unibet 1,88 Superbet 1,88 Betfair 1,87 1xBet 1,85 888Sport 1,85 William Hill 1,85 Bet365 1,83 BetVictor 1,83 Marathonbet 1,83

3,63

🔒

Pinnacle 3,77 1xBet 3,70 Dafabet 3,70 BetVictor 3,70 Marathonbet 3,70 Superbet 3,65 Betano 3,60 Unibet 3,60 Betfair 3,60 10Bet 3,55 Bet365 3,50 888Sport 3,50 William Hill 3,50 SBO 3,33

3,77

🔒

Bet365 4,20 Betfair 4,20 Pinnacle 4,13 Betano 4,10 Superbet 4,10 BetVictor 4,10 Dafabet 4,00 888Sport 4,00 William Hill 4,00 Marathonbet 3,92 1xBet 3,90 10Bet 3,80 Unibet 3,80 SBO 3,55

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

1,25

🔒

Betano 1,27 Pinnacle 1,26 BetVictor 1,26 10Bet 1,25 Bet365 1,25 888Sport 1,25 Superbet 1,25 Unibet 1,23 1xBet 1,22 Betfair 1,22 Marathonbet 1,22

U1,5

3,80

🔒

Betfair 4,10 Bet365 4,00 Pinnacle 4,00 Superbet 4,00 Unibet 3,80 888Sport 3,80 10Bet 3,75 Betano 3,75 1xBet 3,54 Marathonbet 3,54 BetVictor 3,40

O2,5 ✓

1,73

🔒

Pinnacle 1,84 Betano 1,83 SBO 1,81 10Bet 1,80 Bet365 1,80 Betfair 1,80 1xBet 1,79 Marathonbet 1,79 Unibet 1,78 Superbet 1,78 888Sport 1,75 BetVictor 1,74

U2,5

2,03

🔒

Pinnacle 2,06 Superbet 2,05 SBO 2,03 Betano 2,02 10Bet 2,00 Bet365 2,00 Betfair 2,00 1xBet 1,99 Marathonbet 1,99 Unibet 1,95 888Sport 1,95 BetVictor 1,94

O3,5

3,00

🔒