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Championship

Referee: J Smith

QPR

U T S T T

0–4

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

QPR Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 35/32 matches

Win Ø 45%

37%

53%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

63%

53%

Both score Ø 61%

66%

56%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,69 xG 3,80

31% Possession 69%

9 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 8

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 3

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match QPR 16. · Middlesbrough 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	36	22	8	6	+36	+26.1	74
2	Ipswich	35	18	10	7	+26	+26.2	64
3	Millwall	34	18	8	8	+9	+8.8	62
4	Middlesbrough	32	17	8	7	+12	+11.6	59
5	Wrexham	35	15	12	8	+9	-1.3	57
6	Hull	33	17	6	10	+8	-18.3	57
7	Derby	36	15	9	12	+7	+0.2	54
8	Southampton	33	14	10	9	+15	+16.5	52
9	Watford	35	13	12	10	+4	+7.2	51
10	Bristol City	36	14	8	14	+2	-1.5	50
11	Sheffield United	36	15	4	17	+2	+12.7	49
12	Birmingham	36	13	10	13	-1	+13.9	49
13	Preston	36	12	13	11	-1	-13.2	49
14	Swansea	36	14	7	15	-1	-4.5	49
15	Stoke	36	13	8	15	+3	-10.3	47
16	QPR	35	13	8	14	-8	+0.8	47
17	Norwich	35	13	6	16	+3	-4.3	45
18	Charlton	36	11	11	14	-10	-12.7	44
19	Leicester	36	10	11	15	-9	-16.8	41
20	Portsmouth	35	10	10	15	-10	-0.5	40
21	Blackburn	36	10	9	17	-13	+4.8	39
22	West Brom	36	9	9	18	-18	+4.4	36
23	Oxford	36	8	11	17	-14	-10.9	35
24	Sheffield Weds	36	1	8	27	-51	-39.0	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	17	13	3	1	+23	+16.8	42
2	Ipswich	19	12	6	1	+22	+23.7	42
3	Swansea	19	10	5	4	+9	+0.2	35
4	Millwall	17	10	3	4	+7	+8.3	33
5	Middlesbrough	16	9	5	2	+10	+5.8	32
6	Watford	18	9	5	4	+7	+6.6	32
7	Birmingham	17	8	7	2	+13	+17.7	31
8	Wrexham	18	8	6	4	+5	+8.1	30
9	Hull	17	9	3	5	+3	-7.2	30
10	Southampton	16	8	5	3	+12	+10.9	29
11	Charlton	18	8	4	6	+0	+0.3	28
12	Sheffield United	18	8	3	7	+8	+13.5	27
13	Derby	19	7	6	6	+1	+1.0	27
14	Preston	19	7	6	6	+0	-4.4	27
15	QPR	17	8	2	7	+3	+9.2	26
16	Stoke	17	7	4	6	+6	-0.4	25
17	Bristol City	19	7	4	8	+2	-0.1	25
18	West Brom	17	6	6	5	-3	+9.6	24
19	Portsmouth	17	6	4	7	+1	+6.1	22
20	Leicester	17	6	4	7	-2	-1.9	22
21	Norwich	17	6	1	10	-3	+1.2	19
22	Blackburn	19	4	6	9	-7	+6.7	18
23	Oxford	17	4	6	7	-8	-1.9	18
24	Sheffield Weds	18	0	4	14	-29	-17.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	19	9	5	5	+13	+9.4	32
2	Millwall	17	8	5	4	+2	+0.5	29
3	Derby	17	8	3	6	+6	-0.8	27
4	Hull	16	8	3	5	+5	-11.1	27
5	Wrexham	17	7	6	4	+4	-9.3	27
6	Middlesbrough	16	8	3	5	+2	+5.7	27
7	Norwich	18	7	5	6	+6	-5.5	26
8	Bristol City	17	7	4	6	+0	-1.3	25
9	Southampton	17	6	5	6	+3	+5.6	23
10	Ipswich	16	6	4	6	+4	+2.5	22
11	Preston	17	5	7	5	-1	-8.8	22
12	Stoke	19	6	4	9	-3	-9.9	22
13	Sheffield United	18	7	1	10	-6	-0.8	22
14	Blackburn	17	6	3	8	-6	-1.9	21
15	QPR	18	5	6	7	-11	-8.4	21
16	Watford	17	4	7	6	-3	+0.5	19
17	Leicester	19	4	7	8	-7	-14.9	19
18	Portsmouth	18	4	6	8	-11	-6.7	18
19	Birmingham	19	5	3	11	-14	-3.7	18
20	Oxford	19	4	5	10	-6	-9.0	17
21	Charlton	18	3	7	8	-10	-13.0	16
22	Swansea	17	4	2	11	-10	-4.8	14
23	West Brom	19	3	3	13	-15	-5.2	12
24	Sheffield Weds	18	1	4	13	-22	-21.7	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.