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Primeira Liga

Referee: António Nobre

Sp Lisbon

S S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Arouca

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

86%

14%

Points per game

2,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

57%

29%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,70 xG 0,61

57% Possession 43%

10 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 7

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Arouca 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	8	7	0	1	+11	+9.4	21
2	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+9	+8.2	19
3	Porto	8	6	1	1	+5	+5.2	19
4	Sp Braga	8	5	1	2	+6	+4.0	16
5	Guimaraes	8	5	1	2	+2	+0.3	16
6	Boavista	8	4	3	1	+5	-2.2	15
7	Famalicao	8	3	3	2	+0	-2.2	12
8	Moreirense	8	3	2	3	+1	+0.0	11
9	Gil Vicente	8	3	0	5	+3	-3.8	9
10	Casa Pia	8	2	3	3	+0	-0.7	9
11	Estrela	8	2	2	4	-4	-1.7	8
12	Portimonense	8	2	2	4	-9	-3.9	8
13	Farense	8	2	1	5	+0	-4.0	7
14	Chaves	8	2	1	5	-9	-2.3	7
15	Arouca	7	1	3	3	-3	-0.4	6
16	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.0	6
17	Rio Ave	8	1	2	5	-8	-2.6	5
18	Estoril	8	1	1	6	-5	-2.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.6	12
2	Porto	4	3	1	0	+3	+5.5	10
3	Gil Vicente	4	3	0	1	+8	-0.9	9
4	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.2	9
5	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.1	9
6	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+4	+0.4	8
7	Farense	5	2	1	2	+3	-1.0	7
8	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+3	+5.1	7
9	Famalicao	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.0	7
10	Estoril	4	1	1	2	+0	-0.6	4
11	Chaves	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
12	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.0	4
13	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.2	4
14	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.6	4
15	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.2	4
16	Estrela	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.5	3
17	Casa Pia	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.3	2
18	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+4	+4.2	12
2	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+3	-1.1	9
3	Porto	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.2	9
4	Moreirense	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.1	7
5	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.7	7
6	Casa Pia	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.6	7
7	Boavista	4	2	1	1	+1	-2.6	7
8	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	-1	-1.8	7
9	Portimonense	5	2	1	2	-4	-2.1	7
10	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.2	5
11	Estrela	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.3	5
12	Chaves	4	1	0	3	-8	-3.8	3
13	Arouca	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.0	2
14	Vizela	4	0	2	2	-3	-2.0	2
15	Rio Ave	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.8	1
16	Farense	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.9	0
17	Estoril	4	0	0	4	-5	-1.7	0
18	Gil Vicente	4	0	0	4	-5	-2.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.