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Primeira Liga

Referee: André Narciso

Arouca

S T U U U

0–1

Full-time

Casa Pia

T S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 88%

100%

75%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,45 xG 0,88

57% Possession 43%

11 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

2 Corners 7

0 Offside 5

12 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 9. · Casa Pia 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	4	1	0	+4	+4.7	13
2	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+7	+6.1	12
3	Boavista	4	3	1	0	+5	+1.8	10
4	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+3	+3.0	10
5	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	+0	-0.8	9
6	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+1	-1.3	8
7	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.9	7
8	Farense	5	2	0	3	+2	-0.3	6
9	Arouca	4	1	3	0	+1	-1.6	6
10	Casa Pia	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.8	5
11	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.0	5
12	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.1	4
13	Vizela	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.4	4
14	Estrela	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.3	4
15	Gil Vicente	4	1	0	3	+2	-1.7	3
16	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-1	+0.5	3
17	Portimonense	4	0	2	2	-8	-3.8	2
18	Chaves	4	0	0	4	-10	-4.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.1	6
2	Farense	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.9	6
3	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.5	6
4	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.0	6
5	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
6	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
7	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.2	4
8	Porto	2	1	1	0	+1	+3.8	4
9	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
10	Vizela	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.5	4
11	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+4	-1.0	3
12	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
13	Estrela	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.7	3
14	Sp Braga	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
15	Casa Pia	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.1	1
16	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.5	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.6	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.8	9
2	Boavista	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.3	6
3	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.3	6
4	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.0	6
5	Casa Pia	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.9	4
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
7	Moreirense	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
8	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.6	4
9	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-3	-1.2	3
10	Arouca	2	0	2	0	+0	-3.2	2
11	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
12	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.2	1
13	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.3	1
14	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
15	Farense	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.2	0
16	Gil Vicente	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
17	Vizela	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.9	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-7	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.