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Championship

Referee: T Nield

Watford

U S T S S

3–0

Full-time

Stoke

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

5,0

1,0

Scored

3,0

1,0

Conceded

2,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,27 xG 0,85

55% Possession 45%

24 Shots 7

8 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 4

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 8. · Stoke 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.6	4
2	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+4	+4.4	3
3	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.0	3
4	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
5	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
6	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
7	Oxford	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.9	3
8	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
9	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
10	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.8	3
11	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.9	3
12	Derby	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.5	3
13	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.5	2
14	Portsmouth	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.5	2
15	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
16	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
17	Luton	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.0	1
18	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
19	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.4	0
20	QPR	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
21	Preston	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
22	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
23	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.1	0
24	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-4	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+4	+4.4	3
2	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
3	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.1	3
4	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
5	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.4	3
6	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
7	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
8	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.5	1
9	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
10	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
11	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
12	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
13	QPR	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
14	Preston	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
15	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
16	Luton	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.0	3
2	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
3	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
4	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
5	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
6	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.5	1
7	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
8	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
9	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
10	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
11	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.4	0
12	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
13	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
14	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
15	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.1	0
16	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-4	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.