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Primeira Liga

Referee: Iancu Vasilica

Benfica

S T S U T

3–0

Full-time

Casa Pia

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

2,0

1,0

Scored

0,0

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,50 xG 0,29

63% Possession 37%

26 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

12 Corners 2

6 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 17. · Casa Pia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.5	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.7	6
3	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
4	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
5	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
6	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
7	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
8	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.4	3
9	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.7	3
10	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
11	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
12	AVS	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
13	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.4	1
14	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
15	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
16	Farense	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.6	0
17	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
18	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.4	3
2	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
3	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
4	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
5	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
6	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
7	AVS	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
8	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
9	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
10	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
11	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
12	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
13	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.9	3
2	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
3	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
4	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
5	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
6	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
7	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
8	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
9	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
10	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
11	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
12	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
13	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.