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Ligue 1
Referee: B Bastien
Brest
T S U U S
1–5
Full-time
Marseille
U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,8
2,7
Scored
2,0
1,3
Conceded
1,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

1,32 xG 2,38
50% Possession 50%
7 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 5
1 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 6
5 Corners 0
2 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 8
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

18. Feb -24 Brest – Marseille 1–0 26. Aug -23 Marseille – Brest 2–0 27. May -23 Marseille – Brest 1–2 14. Aug -22 Brest – Marseille 1–1 13. Mar -22 Brest – Marseille 1–4

Match report

Brest Marseille
3′
⚽ M. Greenwood 0–1
A. Harit
Ludovic Ajorque ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
7′
7′
🟨 Derek Cornelius
Romain Del Castillo ❌
penalty missed
9′
Mathias Pereira Lage 🟨
16′
26′
⚽ Luis Henrique 0–2
A. Harit
Jonas Martin 🟨
30′
31′
⚽ M. Greenwood 0–3
Half-time 0–3
Kenny Lala 🟨
46′
48′
⚽ Luis Henrique 0–4
1–4 M. Camara ⚽
R. Del Castillo
51′
R. Faivre 🔁
↦ L. Ajorque
64′
69′
⚽ E. Wahi 1–5
A. Camblan 🔁
↦ Mathias Pereira Lage
70′
H. Mbock 🔁
↦ J. Martin
70′
71′
🔁 B. Meïté
↦ Pol Lirola
71′
🔁 F. Moumbagna
↦ E. Wahi
Jordan Amavi 🟨
74′
79′
🔁 E. Sternal
↦ F. Moumbagna
L. Zogbé 🔁
↦ J. Amavi
84′
88′
🔁 K. Abdallah
↦ A. Harit
88′
🔁 V. Rongier
↦ Luis Henrique
Full-time 1–5

Line-ups

Brest

4-3-3
40 M. Bizot G
27 K. Lala D
5 B. Chardonnet D
25 J. Le Cardinal D
23 J. Amavi D
45 M. Camara M
28 J. Martin M
26 Mathias Pereira Lage M
10 R. Del Castillo F
19 L. Ajorque F
22 J. Le Douaron F
Bench (8)
21 R. Faivre
11 A. Camblan
18 H. Mbock
12 L. Zogbé
30 G. Coudert
4 A. Dari
33 L. Botz
32 I. Kanté

Coach: E. Roy

Marseille

4-2-3-1
1 G. Rulli G
62 A. Murillo D
5 L. Balerdi D
13 D. Cornelius D
29 Pol Lirola D
23 P. Højbjerg M
3 Q. Merlin M
10 M. Greenwood M
11 A. Harit M
44 Luis Henrique M
9 E. Wahi F
Bench (9)
18 B. Meïté
14 F. Moumbagna
22 E. Sternal
48 K. Abdallah
21 V. Rongier
12 J. de Lange
43 A. Koum
47 G. Lafont
46 R. Nyakossi

Coach: R. De Zerbi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,88
🔒
U
3,40
🔒
B ✓
2,46
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,87
🔒
U2,5
1,97
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

B Bastien · 180 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.