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League Cup
Referee: B Toner
Carlisle
T S T T T
0–2
Full-time
Stoke
U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Carlisle Stoke
Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches
Win Ø 44%
20%
67%
Points per game
0,6
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 65%
80%
50%
Both score Ø 49%
80%
17%
Average goals
3,2
2,3
Scored
1,2
1,7
Conceded
2,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

37% Possession 63%
12 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 6
0 Blocked shots 0
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 3
1 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 12
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Carlisle Stoke
Half-time 0–1
48′
⚽ F. Anderson 0–1
L. Baker
B. Williams 🔁
↦ A. Davies
60′
L. Armstrong 🔁
↦ D. Adu-Adjei
61′
66′
🔁 L. Gooch
↦ M. Manhoef
66′
🔁 J. Thompson
↦ W. Burger
D. Butterworth 🔁
↦ C. Wyke
73′
78′
🔁 J. Laurent
↦ S. Sidibe
78′
🔁 E. Bocat
↦ L. Koumas
78′
🔁 E. Tezgel
↦ N. Ennis
79′
⚽ E. Tezgel 0–2
L. Gooch
S. Lavelle 🔁
↦ B. Barclay
83′
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Carlisle

5-3-2
1 H. Lewis G
2 A. Davies D
6 A. Hayden D
4 T. Thomas D
22 J. Mellish D
18 J. Ellis D
16 J. Vela M
26 B. Barclay M
17 H. Neal M
10 C. Wyke F
14 D. Adu-Adjei F
Bench (8)
20 B. Williams
29 L. Armstrong
11 D. Butterworth
5 S. Lavelle
9 G. Kelly
13 G. Breeze
27 J. Allan
31 S. Hetherington

Coach: P. Simpson

Stoke

4-3-3
34 F. Fielding G
41 J. Dixon D
16 B. Wilmot D
43 F. Anderson D
12 D. Johnson D
30 S. Sidibe M
6 W. Burger M
8 L. Baker M
42 M. Manhoef F
14 N. Ennis F
11 L. Koumas F
Bench (9)
2 L. Gooch
15 J. Thompson
28 J. Laurent
17 E. Bocat
37 E. Tezgel
23 B. Gibson
22 J. Tchamadeu
1 V. Johansson
35 N. Lowe

Coach: S. Schumacher

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

B Toner · 43 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.