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Serie A
Referee: G Ayroldi
Parma
S U U U T
1–1
Full-time
Fiorentina
S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
1,8
3,3
Scored
1,2
1,8
Conceded
0,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,82 xG 0,75
39% Possession 61%
13 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 7
4 Blocked shots 5
6 Goalkeeper saves 5
4 Corners 9
1 Offside 5
15 Free kicks against 9
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

6. Dec -23 Fiorentina – Parma 2–2 7. Mar -21 Fiorentina – Parma 3–3 7. Nov -20 Parma – Fiorentina 0–0 5. Jul -20 Parma – Fiorentina 1–2 3. Nov -19 Fiorentina – Parma 1–1

Match report

Parma Fiorentina
1–0 D. Man ⚽
A. Bonny
22′
35′
🟨 Marin Pongračić
Nahuel Estévez 🟨
36′
Half-time 1–0
Botond Balogh 🟨
49′
60′
🔁 F. Parisi
↦ L. Martínez Quarta
60′
🔁 J. Ikoné
↦ A. Colpani
D. Camara 🔁
↦ V. Mihăilă
65′
A. Hainaut 🔁
↦ A. Bonny
65′
P. Almqvist 🔁
↦ D. Man
65′
73′
🔁 A. Bianco
↦ R. Mandragora
73′
🔁 M. Kayode
↦ P. Comuzzo
75′
⚽ C. Biraghi 1–1
M. Cancellieri 🔁
↦ S. Sohm
76′
79′
🔁 R. Sottil
↦ C. Kouamé
W. Cyprien 🔁
↦ Adrián Bernabé
80′
83′
🟨 Marin Pongračić
83′
🟥 Marin Pongračić
Alessandro Circati 🟨
85′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Parma

4-2-3-1
31 Z. Suzuki G
26 W. Coulibaly D
4 B. Balogh D
39 A. Circati D
14 E. Valeri D
8 N. Estévez M
19 S. Sohm M
98 D. Man M
10 Adrián Bernabé M
28 V. Mihăilă M
13 A. Bonny F
Bench (11)
23 D. Camara
20 A. Hainaut
11 P. Almqvist
22 M. Cancellieri
25 W. Cyprien
61 A. Haj Mohamed
5 L. Valenti
62 M. Kowalski
1 L. Chichizola
64 D. Mikołajewski
40 E. Corvi

Coach: F. Pecchia

Fiorentina

3-4-2-1
1 P. Terracciano G
28 L. Martínez Quarta D
5 M. Pongračić D
15 P. Comuzzo D
2 Dodô M
8 R. Mandragora M
4 S. Amrabat M
3 C. Biraghi M
23 A. Colpani F
99 C. Kouamé F
20 M. Kean F
Bench (14)
65 F. Parisi
11 J. Ikoné
42 A. Bianco
33 M. Kayode
7 R. Sottil
17 N. Fortini
72 A. Barák
30 T. Martinelli
77 J. Brekalo
24 A. Richardson
9 L. Beltrán
43 David de Gea
27 L. Baroncelli
19 G. Infantino

Coach: R. Palladino

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,31
🔒
U ✓
3,41
🔒
B
2,23
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
1,88
🔒
U2,5 ✓
1,95
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

G Ayroldi · 86 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,37 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.