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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Stoke

S U T S U

0–4

Full-time

Watford

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

This season — Championship · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 30%

30%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

40%

30%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

49% Possession 51%

15 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 9

5 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 6

0 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 17. · Watford 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	11	7	3	1	+14	24
2	Norwich	11	7	2	2	+8	23
3	Reading	11	7	0	4	-2	21
4	Burnley	11	4	6	1	+7	18
5	QPR	11	5	3	3	+4	18
6	Blackburn	11	6	0	5	-1	18
7	Sunderland	11	4	4	3	+5	16
8	Luton	11	4	4	3	+3	16
9	Wigan	10	4	4	2	+0	16
10	Swansea	11	4	3	4	-1	15
11	Rotherham	10	3	5	2	+4	14
12	Bristol City	11	4	2	5	+2	14
13	Watford	10	3	5	2	+0	14
14	Preston	11	2	7	2	-1	13
15	Birmingham	11	3	4	4	-2	13
16	Millwall	11	4	1	6	-4	13
17	Stoke	10	3	3	4	+0	12
18	Cardiff	11	3	3	5	-4	12
19	Blackpool	11	3	2	6	-6	11
20	Hull	11	3	2	6	-12	11
21	West Brom	11	1	7	3	+0	10
22	Middlesbrough	10	2	4	4	-2	10
23	Huddersfield	10	2	1	7	-6	7
24	Coventry	7	0	3	4	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	6	5	0	1	+5	15
2	Norwich	6	4	2	0	+7	14
3	Sheffield United	5	4	1	0	+10	13
4	Blackburn	6	4	0	2	+3	12
5	Millwall	6	4	0	2	+3	12
6	Rotherham	6	3	2	1	+7	11
7	Watford	5	3	1	1	+2	10
8	Bristol City	5	3	0	2	+4	9
9	Burnley	5	2	3	0	+3	9
10	Middlesbrough	6	2	3	1	+1	9
11	Hull	6	3	0	3	-4	9
12	QPR	5	2	2	1	+2	8
13	Cardiff	5	2	2	1	+1	8
14	Huddersfield	6	2	1	3	+0	7
15	Swansea	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	Sunderland	5	1	3	1	+2	6
17	West Brom	6	1	3	2	+1	6
18	Luton	6	1	3	2	+0	6
19	Stoke	4	1	2	1	+1	5
20	Birmingham	5	1	2	2	-1	5
21	Blackpool	5	1	1	3	-2	4
22	Preston	6	0	4	2	-3	4
23	Wigan	5	0	3	2	-5	3
24	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wigan	5	4	1	0	+5	13
2	Sheffield United	6	3	2	1	+4	11
3	Sunderland	6	3	1	2	+3	10
4	Luton	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	QPR	6	3	1	2	+2	10
6	Burnley	6	2	3	1	+4	9
7	Preston	5	2	3	0	+2	9
8	Norwich	5	3	0	2	+1	9
9	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+1	8
10	Birmingham	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Blackpool	6	2	1	3	-4	7
13	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	-4	6
14	Reading	5	2	0	3	-7	6
15	Bristol City	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	West Brom	5	0	4	1	-1	4
17	Watford	5	0	4	1	-2	4
18	Cardiff	6	1	1	4	-5	4
19	Rotherham	4	0	3	1	-3	3
20	Coventry	6	0	3	3	-5	3
21	Hull	5	0	2	3	-8	2
22	Middlesbrough	4	0	1	3	-3	1
23	Millwall	5	0	1	4	-7	1
24	Huddersfield	4	0	0	4	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.