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Championship

Referee: R Madley

Derby

T U T T S

1–0

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,7

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

6,0

1,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

4,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,05 xG 1,55

29% Possession 71%

3 Shots 20

2 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 8

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 5

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 18. · Middlesbrough 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+4	+4.4	3
2	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.0	3
3	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
4	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
5	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
6	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
7	Oxford	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.9	3
8	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
9	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.4	3
10	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
11	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.8	3
12	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.5	1
13	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.5	1
14	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
15	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
16	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
17	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.4	0
18	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
19	QPR	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
20	Preston	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
21	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
22	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.1	0
23	Luton	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.0	0
24	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-4	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+4	+4.4	3
2	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
3	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.1	3
4	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
5	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.4	3
6	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
7	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.5	1
8	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
9	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
10	QPR	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
11	Preston	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
12	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
13	Luton	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.0	3
2	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
3	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
4	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
5	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
6	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.5	1
7	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
8	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
9	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.4	0
10	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
11	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
12	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.1	0
13	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-4	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.