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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luís Godinho

Nacional

S S U U U

1–6

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,3

2,2

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,23 xG 3,14

35% Possession 65%

12 Shots 20

6 Shots on target 10

1 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 12. · Sp Lisbon 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.7	6
2	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
3	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
4	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
5	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
6	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
7	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
8	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.4	3
9	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.7	3
10	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
11	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
12	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
13	AVS	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
14	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
15	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
16	Farense	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.6	0
17	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
18	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.4	3
2	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
3	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
4	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
5	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
6	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
7	AVS	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
8	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
9	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
10	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
11	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
12	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
2	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
3	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
4	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
5	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
6	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
7	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
8	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
9	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
10	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
11	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
12	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.