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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Derby

T S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,3

2,2

Scored

0,5

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,2

This season — Championship · 27/28 matches

Win Ø 33%

26%

39%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 31%

19%

43%

Both score Ø 31%

22%

39%

Average goals

1,7

2,1

Scored

0,6

1,1

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

41% Possession 59%

10 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 1

3 Offside 6

17 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 22. · Middlesbrough 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	28	16	7	5	+12	55
2	Brentford	26	15	8	3	+26	53
3	Watford	28	13	9	6	+11	48
4	Reading	28	14	6	8	+9	48
5	Bournemouth	28	12	10	6	+16	46
6	Swansea	24	13	7	4	+16	46
7	Middlesbrough	28	11	7	10	+3	40
8	Blackburn	28	11	6	11	+11	39
9	Stoke	28	9	12	7	+3	39
10	Preston	29	12	3	14	-3	39
11	Bristol City	28	12	3	13	-4	39
12	Cardiff	28	10	7	11	+5	37
13	Barnsley	25	10	6	9	-1	36
14	Millwall	28	7	14	7	+0	35
15	Luton	27	9	7	11	-7	34
16	Sheffield Weds	28	9	7	12	-9	34
17	Nott'm Forest	29	8	9	12	-5	33
18	QPR	27	8	9	10	-6	33
19	Huddersfield	28	9	6	13	-8	33
20	Coventry	28	7	10	11	-11	31
21	Rotherham	27	8	5	14	-5	29
22	Derby	27	7	7	13	-11	28
23	Birmingham	28	6	10	12	-13	28
24	Wycombe	27	3	7	17	-29	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	14	10	2	2	+13	32
2	Norwich	14	8	5	1	+9	29
3	Bournemouth	14	8	3	3	+11	27
4	Reading	14	9	0	5	+7	27
5	Swansea	13	7	5	1	+10	26
6	Brentford	12	7	4	1	+13	25
7	Huddersfield	14	7	2	5	+5	23
8	Sheffield Weds	14	6	5	3	+4	23
9	Middlesbrough	14	7	2	5	+3	23
10	Bristol City	14	7	2	5	+1	23
11	Blackburn	14	6	4	4	+6	22
12	Barnsley	12	6	3	3	+3	21
13	Coventry	14	5	6	3	+0	21
14	Luton	13	5	5	3	+2	20
15	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-1	19
16	Nott'm Forest	15	4	6	5	+0	18
17	QPR	13	4	4	5	-2	16
18	Cardiff	14	4	3	7	+2	15
19	Rotherham	14	4	3	7	+0	15
20	Millwall	14	2	9	3	+0	15
21	Preston	14	4	2	8	-4	14
22	Derby	14	3	4	7	-8	13
23	Wycombe	14	2	5	7	-9	11
24	Birmingham	14	2	3	9	-14	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	14	8	4	2	+13	28
2	Norwich	14	8	2	4	+3	26
3	Preston	15	8	1	6	+1	25
4	Cardiff	14	6	4	4	+3	22
5	Reading	14	5	6	3	+2	21
6	Swansea	11	6	2	3	+6	20
7	Stoke	14	4	8	2	+4	20
8	Millwall	14	5	5	4	+0	20
9	Bournemouth	14	4	7	3	+5	19
10	Birmingham	14	4	7	3	+1	19
11	Blackburn	14	5	2	7	+5	17
12	Middlesbrough	14	4	5	5	+0	17
13	QPR	14	4	5	5	-4	17
14	Watford	14	3	7	4	-2	16
15	Bristol City	14	5	1	8	-5	16
16	Derby	13	4	3	6	-3	15
17	Barnsley	13	4	3	6	-4	15
18	Nott'm Forest	14	4	3	7	-5	15
19	Rotherham	13	4	2	7	-5	14
20	Luton	14	4	2	8	-9	14
21	Sheffield Weds	14	3	2	9	-13	11
22	Coventry	14	2	4	8	-11	10
23	Huddersfield	14	2	4	8	-13	10
24	Wycombe	13	1	2	10	-20	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.